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Associated with the 2006 book, INFORMATION OPERATIONS: All Information, All Languages, All the Time
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Copyright © OSS Open Access
INFORMATION OPERATIONS:All Information, All Languages, All the Time
The New Semantics of War & Peace, Wealth & Democracy
Author’s Briefing
Robert David Steele VivasMA MPA NWC USMC CIA OSS
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Third Title in Series
Edited Work
Works in Progress:
2007 Commercial Intelligence by Mats Bjore (Gray Book)
2007 Peacekeeping Intelligence Edited with Col Jan-Inge Svensson of Sweden
2008 Information Peacekeeping by Steele (UN Blue Book)
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Highlights
• Foreword by Congressman Rob Simmons• Technical Preface by Dr. Robert Garigue• Connects Strategic IO with Tactical GWOT• Defines Six “IO-Heavy” Mission Areas• Summarizes the Information Challenges• Provides Strategic Concept for M4IS• Defines OSIS-X as a Global Solution• Provides Annotated “Reality” Bibliography
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Why Now?• Information Operations Roadmap 2003
– Excellent idea, incomplete, needs “heart,” must transform IO from bullshit to beliefs—deception & manipulation are TIRED. Truth is WIRED.
– STRATCOM has potential if it turns away from beltway bandit pathologies• USDI dared to want it all—truly inspiring & transformational• SOCOM demonstrated totality of the “pit,” paucity of intelligence alone• CISCO showed growth of machine speed information creation and
interchange—no one Nation, however rich, can get a grip all alone• CENTCOM makes Multinational Information Operations a possibility• L-3 Tampa identified & integrated key enablers
– Machine translation for screening not reading– Advanced analytics for early warning & predictive analysis
• Everything that could go wrong, is going wrong…• Information Operations could and should save the Republic
– Tools for Truth, Sharing of Truth = Informed Democracy– Transparency & Sharing Kill Corruption, Nurture Moral Capitalism– Global Indigenous Legitimate Wealth through Information Sharing is the
ONLY Stabilizing Factor that is Affordable, Sustainable, and Attainable
Copyright © OSS Open Access
The Strategic ObjectiveThe DoD Global Information Coverage program, under
the leadership of USSTRATCOM and in support of the COCOMs and all DoD policy, acquisition, and operations leaders, will:
1. Correctly assess the nature of the global conflict.
2. Understand the strategic environment within which this global conflict is taking place.
3. Identify and address the centers of gravity; most non-military.
4. Understand and address all facets of US, coalition, and hostile party legitimacy.
5. Provide information helpful to fostering global inter-agency and coalition campaigns.
6. Provide metrics for measuring IO inputs, outputs, and outcomes at all four levels of analysis (strategic, operational, tactical, and technical)
7. Provide predictive analysis to stop second-generation terrorism while stabilizing & reconstructing the world.
Dr. Col (Ret) Max Manwaring M
ax
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Six IO-Heavy Mission AreasSeven Communities of Interest
1. Strategic Communication & Public Diplomacy
2. Peacekeeping Intelligence & Information Peacekeeping
3. Early Warning & Stabilization- Reconstruction Operations
4. Homeland Defense & Civil Support
5. National Education & National Research (Defense-Related)
6. Defense Acquisition & Logistics (Build-Buy-Bring)
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Congressman Simmons• General Schoomaker got it in 1997 (SOC)• General Kernan got it in 2000 (NATO)• 40 countries ahead of US• Dr. Stephen Cambone (USDI) has it right!
– Universal coverage, 24/7, all languages, neighborhood levels of granularity
• Four key points:– 100 year six front total war demands IO++– Sharing rather than secrecy wins– Need national Open Source Agency– Need Open Source Software solutions
• For affordable state & local sharing• For affordable NGO/coalition sharing
• IO is central to DoD mission and HS• Need IO architecture to educate citizens
and also collect “bottom up” defensive dots
R-CT-02, 3rd Term
HASC, Homeland Security Chairman, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Dr. Robert Garigue, Canada• Computers create and destroy knowledge• Computers are in their infancy• Three forms of IW:
– Physical IW—denial of service– Syntactical IW—corruption & confusion– Semantic IW—belief systems
• IO creates organizational efficacy• Knowledge can deter conflict and create
stabilizing wealth—ultimate source of power• Data is getting smart—comes with attributes• Data with history & context more valuable• IP is about belief systems—undermining bad
ones and reinforcing good ones• IO = IW + IP, killing “bad” sites is not enough• Need to Ramp Up IP and spread “good” ideas• World Brain is a Reality—We Need to Grow Up
• VP for Information Integrity and Chief Security Executive Bell Canada • Created the IW framework for the Canadian forces (LtCdr RN)• Chairman of the Government of Canada Council for Information Protection• Chairman of the Canadian Financial Information Security Executives
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Author’s Preface (Bottom Line)• Inter-agency sharing of non-
secrets more important than secrets for the President
• Unclassified information on beliefs, reality, operations, logistics more important than secret technical information
• Modern IO is about Global Coverage, 24/7 that leads to sharing, understanding, foresight and crafting of BUDGETS & BEHAVIOR that make sense and achieve desired outcomes in near, mid, and long-term.
• PEACE & PROSPERITY are not easy—they require ethical constant thought & application.
• 30 years overseas as son of oilman, USMC infantry officer, spy, and intelligence coach
• Created Marine Corps Intelligence Command
• #1 Amazon reviewer of global issues books
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Global Secret Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding
Copyright © OSS Open Access
50% Less CostlyM
ore
Sat
isfy
ing
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
Global Total Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
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HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT
ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS
OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
5% of cost 80% of value
95% of cost 20% of value
This is a common-sense contrast we can exploit!
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Baseball AnalogyHarnessing the Power of the Crowd
OSINT
HUMINT
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
Copyright © OSS Open Access
QDR 2006 Shift in Focus
• OLD– State-based threats– State-on-state combat– One force for all– Reactive– Static garrison forces– “Battle-ready”– One major conflict– Stovepiped services– Focus on hardware– User finds data– US military does it all– DoD rules the roost
• NEW– Transnational networks– Safe havens within states– Tailored deterrence options– Proactive preventive action– Mobile, expeditionary– “Battle-hardened”– Multiple irregular operations– Joint/coalition operations– Focus on knowledge/intelligence– Data finds user (CISCO AON)– Deep coalition partnerships– Inter-agency campaigns
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Understanding the Threat“Big War” is 10% Probable, Takes 90% of $
• USMC knew all this in 1988
• QDR 2006 is 18 years late but finally!!
• Four threats require:– Four mind-sets– Four forces– Four strategies– Four campaigns
• Unity of Effort (both inter-agency & coalition/non-governmental organization) is not possible without a Global Common Operational Picture (GCOP) that is NOT Secret!
• Sharing, not secrecy, is the operative principle for unity/victory
• US Industrial-Congressional corruption is our worst enemy, blocks change
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New Strategy: 1 + iii:Need better balance within national security.
50% 15% 20% 15%
250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 32B
CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME
Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence
Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol
Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security
1 ii i
Electronic
Reserve
Reserve Environment
Public HealthPeace Navy
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Understanding the Real World100-year 6-front total war
• Arabic, Aramaic, Berber, Catelan, Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English, Farsi, Finnish, French, German, Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian, Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish, Urdu—minimal mandatory
• Arabic variations: Andalusi Arabic (extinct, but important role in literary history); Egyptian Arabic (Egypt) considered the most widely understood and used "second dialect"; Gulf Arabic (Gulf coast from Kuwait to Oman, and minorities on the other side); Hassaniiya (in Mauritania); Hijazi Arabic; Iraqi Arabic; Levantine Arabic (Syrian, Lebanese, Palestinian, and western Jordanian); Maghreb Arabic (Tunisian, Algerian, Moroccan, and western Libyan); Maltese; Najdi Arabic; Sudanese Arabic (with a dialect continuum into Chad); and Yemeni Arabic.
• You either get with the program or lose.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Neighborhoods, Not NationsThis is the level of analysis for the long war
The other rules are in THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Modern Analysis 101
• Absent this model, it is not possible to be effective at integrated long-term analysis.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Modern Analysis 102• We need to stop wasting
money on costly US “butts in seats” lacking deep historical, cultural, linguistic, or real-life foreign area expertise.
• It’s time to get serious about global psycho-social analysis in depth.
• We cannot do it alone—we must go to multinational IO in full collaboration with all relevant NGOs.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Situational AwarenessWe Geo-Tag, RDF, OWL, & SOAP Everything
• Used with permission.
• XML-Geo• RDF• OWL• SOAP• OHS*• And a few
other things the beltway bandits have not thought about…..
* Open Hyperdocument System from Doug Englebart—allows citation analysis linkage at the paragraph level, and copyright compensation at the micro-cash level.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
A Revolution is UnderwayDistributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible—We MUST Go “Multinational”
Copyright © OSS Open Access
OLD PARADIGMNEW PARADIGM
# = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global
You Are Here...
12
3
Far Future
Near Future
Present
Historical Memory
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OLD PARADIGMNEW PARADIGM
Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets
You Are Here...
12
3
Gaming Future ROIs
Foreign Viewpoints
Reality
Public Memory
Secrecy rules
Elites rules
Act on 2% of the info.
People complacent
Short-term view
Unilateral militarism
Immoral capitalism
Big stick works BUT
Long-term cost not visible to public
Copyright © OSS Open Access
The Information Marketplace
Threat
Public Diplomacy & Strategic Communication
BudgetAcquisition of Right Stuff at
Right Time
Policy
IC &USG
State & Local
CorporationsForeignGovernments
& NGOs
OSIS-X
Policy World Client World Budget not based on threat. Only a fraction of clients are served.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Status of the Tribes TodayWe Must Transfer Proven Legal Ethical Decision-
Support (Intelligence) Process to All
0102030405060708090
100Objective
National
Military
Business
Academic
NGO-Media
Religious
• National 50%• Military 40%• Business 30%• Academic 30%• Law Enforcement 20%• NGO-Media 20%• Religious 20%
We have much to do.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Copyright © OSS Open Access
0 500.000 1.000.000 1.500.000 2.000.000 2.500.000 3.000.000 3.500.000 4.000.000 4.500.000 5.000.000
film
magnetic
optical
telephone
radio
TV
Internet
surface Web
deep web
instant messaging
P2P file sharing
lower 327 74.202 3.416.230 51 3.488 39.841
upper 1.634 420.254 4.999.230 103 3.488 68.955 532.897 167 91.850 440.606 274 0
print film magnetic optical telephone radio TV Internet surface Web deep web emailinstant
messaging
P2P file
sharing
Success Story: Dutch OSINT
Surface web is NOT the Internet (Deep
web plus)
Email matters more than www
Books down, still matter as history
Merging with Internet
CISCO IPICS
Converts Tactical Radio to Digital Packets
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Success Story: Swedish OSINT
• Began with one Maj (today LtCol), today fills up a basement in storage and aggregate sense-making software
• Works in all languages, manages global cover stories, gets technical information directly from all manufacturers including Chinese and Russians
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Success Story: South African OSINT
• First to combine appreciation of both open source software as affordable, and open source intelligence as trust building measure
• Only leader of a continent-wide early warning and open source information sharing system
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Success Story: UK OSINT• Started with just one
detective constable• Leveraged global
network of pro bono advisors, many met at OSS.Net conferences
• Cut cost of finding terrorist hide-outs from L3000/day to L30 in an hour by using OSINT
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved ByChanging When & How We Intervene
• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention– More Peacekeeping– More Education– More Long-Term Aid– Less Corruption– Less Censorship
• We have a sacred duty.
Between OSIS-X and MIOCs, World Brain is Possible
Copyright © OSS Open Access
New Craft of Intelligence
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
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Information for All Four Levels
Strategic Planning
Operational Coordination
Tactical Employment
Acquisition Design
• History
• Context
• Current Awareness
• Key Personalities/Motivators
• Imagery & Image Maps
• Translation Support
• Strategic Generalizations
• Critical Technologies
This is about information superiority across the board, not just enhancing all-source intelligence!
Copyright © OSS Open Access
SECRET BIG DATA
• NSA-NGA
• SAIC
• HARRIS
• NG-MS
NOT SECRET BIG DATA
• UN, Red Cross, NGOs…
• NASA , public geospatial
• Factiva
• LEXIS-NEXIS
SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA
• Intelink
• ARDA
• ITIC
• JHU/APL
NOT SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA
• CISCO
• Google/Libraries
• Amazon Inside the Book
• Napster Plus
Open Source Information System – External (OSIS-X)
SIPRNET
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OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals)
GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations)
Intelink-X
USA Earns Nobels Across S&T
Funded by DoD, Fed By OSIS-X
USA DGI, GIC, GSC
World Intelligence Network
General Al Gray: “Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant.Peter Drucker (paraphrase): We’ve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT.
Side Benefit: Provides USG with global cultural and educational leverage at home and abroad
Side Benefit: Conflict Deterrence & Resolution via Early Warning & Information Peacekeeping
DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council
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$1B/Yr 3
$111B/Yr 10
Pay with information
Pay with cash & information
DoD
$250M/Yr 1
$500M/Yr 2
$1B/Yr 3
$1B is half what USDI was prepared to authorize at FOC
for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs, OSINT, & integrated man-machine Foreign Language Conversion in a
coherent manner that creates added value for each contract, a compelling
sales point and a barrier to entry for our competitors who miss the big picture.
1PB/Yr 15 PB/Yr 2
10 PB/Yr 3
Goal is all UN information including field reports in real time, beginning
with complex PKI of DoD interest and networking of all NGO eyes & ears on the ground.
USG
10X DoD
with 1-3 year
lag time.
U.S. Based Corporations
OMB pursuing “common solutions” approach. We give them our model, funded by DoD, for all of USG with NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as the ultimate beneficiary. The language capability can help us capture 911 now.
Most of them don’t get it yet—stuck in IT or KM, internally focused. Spending $15B a year now on data mining and related IT-driven ideas.
Two tracks: one with our team members and their best big clients, the other commoditizing for small businesses.
Education Everywhere All Levels
Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open research information including all student dissertationsto OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit (registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind “by name” into the global network. All students everywhere are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning, on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus onrestoring education and research as the engines for wealthproduction through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, wefocus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation.
Law Enforcement Beginning with Interpol and drilling down locally in all countries, we give them OSIS-X free to obtain privacy OK & protection world-wide. GWOT data benefits.
United NationsAll NGOs, World Bank, IMF
Journalists We get their organizations to pay for access, but we find a way to recruit them as individuals to meet our client needs on the side.
Labor Unions & ReligionsCitizens & Advocacy Groups
It’s no longer about the collection of information or the communication of information. The next big thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people. We do this with an intelligent network and a focus on semantic web/synthetic information architecture technology, and the empowerment of individuals so that they can create and share knowledge in real time without organizational, legal, security, cultural, or language impediments.
The next slide shows the OSS value concept, the “I” side of the IT equation. SANITIZED
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Focus of Global EffortStrategic Forecasting10% Need, 40% Cost
Primary Research & Experts on Demand20% Need, 30% Cost
Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now)30% Need, 20% Cost
Daily/Weekly Reports40% Need, 10% Cost
Shared Among Tribes
Partial Sharing
Tribal Secret
Top Secret
This extraordinary depiction is from Jan Herring, one of the top ten I look up to.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
OPG VPN
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Teams Crossing All Boundaries
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Inter-Agency Collaboration
SOJICC
J-2 J-3
J-1MP
J-5CA
J-4Eng
J-6IT
CGR2
INTELLIGENCE CLUSTER
80% Unclassified Information
NGO CLUSTER
LEA CLUSTER
SERVICE CLUSTER
CIVIL CLUSTER
COALITION CLUSTER
?
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?
?
?
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Copyright © OSS Open Access
Copyright © OSS Open Access
OVERVIEWStart with an overview of what is happening in general in you regional area.
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FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360Start with an overview of what is happening in general in your assigned country
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FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATIONSee specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention
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FOCUS ON A PERSONPhotos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details
Copyright © OSS Open Access
GET NEW INSIGHTSThis is the only global information service that integrates sources with tools
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READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXTAnything can be sent to the “scrapbook” where other tools can be applied
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Teen-Agers are Center of GravityFaith Matters-Zealotry Kills
• World War III will be fought in the hearts and minds of teen-agers
• Half the brain—the half that can understand “other” views—dies by the age of 35
• Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and 35—that’s when the brain matures
• Faith matters—not ideological zealotry, but a belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural and religious paths chosen by others over the course of centuries.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Book on Sale Now
• Amazon will sell you this book for $34.95.
• OSS.Net will provide it by the case of 16 at 50% discount.
• War colleges may buy the book at 50% discount with a guest lecture included.
• Same terms for the other books in the series.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Spread the Word
Robert David Steele Vivas
CEO, OSS.Net, Inc.
Intelligence Coach
CALL for email (unlisted)
CALL for email (public)
703.242.1700 voice
703.242.1711 fax
Use MoveOn.Org OSINT topic to self-organize everywhere in the world
Author will speak for sushi.
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