Why we miss the future

Why companies Miss or Find the Future: Minds, Mindsets, and Thinking Differently!

1st DUBROVNIK INTERNATIONAL DIEM 2013

SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE OF INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO THE CONTEMPORARY

ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

John PisapiaFlorida Atlantic University

September 27, 2013

Themes for the Day

Target #1: Understanding WHY and how to Overcome WHY

Theme 1 Can you recognize the future?

Theme 2: What causes us to accept or reject the

future?

Theme 3: How do overcome my limitations?

The Strategic Leader Network 204/10/2023

The Power of the Curve

Finding the Future

How would you explain these facts?• 1

• On June 28, 2007, Nokia was the top selling mobile-phone company in the world, people stopped working when they left their computers, Android phones didn't exist, and executives of all echelons were thumbing on their BlackBerrys.

• The next day, Apple's first iPhone went on sale. • On April 19, 2012, Nokia reported 1.7 billion dollar loss in the

first quarter.

• On July 1, 2012 - BlackBerry maker Research in Motion announced it was laying off 5,000 people -- and reported a first-quarter loss of $518 million. Sales were down 40% from the previous year.

04/10/2023 The Strategic Leader Network 4

A T h e o r y o f S t r a t e g i c C h a n g e !

The Power of the Curve

504/10/2023

Expl

oita

tion

The Strategic Leader Network

Pred

iction

- An

alytic

The History of the Cell Phone

04/10/2023 The Strategic Leader Network 6

A T h e o r y o f S t r a t e g i c C h a n g e !

The Power of the Curve

704/10/2023

Expl

oita

tion

Expl

orati

on

Disruptive Innovation

The Strategic Leader Network

Pred

iction

- An

alytic

Synthesis & Analytic

Uncertainty

04/10/2023 The Strategic Leader Network 8

The Lessons of the Curve

The Lessons of the Curve

04/10/2023 The Strategic Leader Network 9

The Change Lesson

The Thinking LessonSynthetically as well as Analytically;

Creatively as well as Critically

Implicitly as well as Explicitly.

Leaders must have the capability to understand and rapidly adapt to changes in their environment.

In the Gap!

The Minds we Need

10

Unfortunately, “We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”

“Think Different”The innovative mind takes the creative idea and successfully implements it

“Think Differently”04/10/2023

The Strategic Leader Network (SLN)

Here is what is Stopping Us from Thinking Differently

1104/10/2023

Recognize the Blinders! – Those unconscious

Assumptions Cognitive Biases, (Salience, Confirmation Bias, Frame

Dominance)and Competing Commitments

which control how you think and interpret information and circumstances!

Well – it starts with understanding your mindset and how you think…

If mindset is that powerful,

I Need to know how I can adjust, if necessary?

04/10/2023 The Strategic Leader Network 13

In the Gap we need :A mind that is curious, flexible, and wise AND

The Thinking skills that make it possible to recognize

• Patterns,

• Make sense out of seemingly unrelated information.

• Enable us to switch from a strategic mindset -“Why and What” - to a tactical mindset -“How and When” - in a rapid and iterative process when appropriate.

14Pisapia, J. (2009). The Strategic Leader. Charlotte, NC: IAP

T

The Skills we need to Think like a

LeaderIn the Gap

04/10/2023 The Strategic Leader Network 15

The How?

The Strategic Thinking Skills

Reflection

ReframingSystems Thinking

16

Analytical

Creative

Divergent

Synthesis

Intuitive

Critical

Evaluative

Integrative

Pragmatic

Tactical

Reasoning

Practical

StrategicSolutions

Future

Forward

Convergent

Deductive

Inductive

Holistic

Linear Non Linear

Agility

S y s t e m s T h i n k i n g

Pisapia, J. (2009). The Strategic Leader. Charlotte, NC: IAP

Helicopter Thinking

…Do you tend to see the trees or the forest?

Do you see the Parts? Do you see the System?

People only see what they are prepared to see. Ralph Waldo Emerson

and use these perspectives to map out different strategies, and identify trends before others see them

Reframing The skill that enables you to gain

perspective;

The Strategic Leader Network 20

•

In the 1960s Swiss watchmakers controlled 50% of the world market for watches and employed approximately 90,000 People

In 1968 a Switzerland research institute made the first electronic quartz wristwatch. But dismissed it.

In 1970, the Japanese began making electronic quartz wristwatches

By 1978 the Swiss laid off 60,000 of their 90,000 employees.

Why?

Frame DominanceThe Quartz Crisis

Wait there is more to the story!

In March 1983 the Swiss introduced the Swatch

by 1997, the Swiss reclaimed its position as the world’s leading watch exporter

Leadership is always situated within a context !

Frame Dominance!

“You need to understand what sandbox you are playing in."

Ferdinand de Lessups

“The greatest sin in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.”

— Peter Drucker

Exercise Your Mental Muscles!

Want More?jpisapia@fau.edu

• Pisapia, J. (2009). The strategic Leader: New tactics for a globalizing world. Charlotte: NC.

Information Age Publishing • Join one of SLN's Global Learning

Communities!

04/10/2023 The Strategic Leader Network 25