TREND RESEARCH and MANAGEMENT: what is a trend? (PART 2)

www.semiosearch.lt/trainingPART 2 of TREND TRAINING COURSE

WHAT IS A TREND?TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK

CONTENTSThe main purpose of this lesson is to introduce the trend analysis framework. We will start with the main parts of the framework and go through the different types of trends.

-TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK

-INNOVATION LANDSCAPE

-MACRO-DIMENSIONS

-VALUES AND BEHAVIORS

-DIFFERENT TYPES OF TRENDS

-FINAL REMARKS

THIS LESSON

In the next lessons we will further explore how each part and their combination work.

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TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK

identifying a trend is firstly and most importantly identifying

change

TREND AS CHANGE

a trend is not an isolated phenomenon, it is a

combination of changes

OUR MAIN THESIS

INNOVATION LANDSCAPE

MACRO-DIMENSIONS

FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL

Innovation landscape encompasses business and organizational innovations that can appear in the form of start-ups, new features, models of operations or value creation

the dimensions that have influence on our everyday lives: culture, lifestyle, consumption, environment, governance, organization, technology, community, demographics or education

behaviors and needsbeliefs and values

the underlying ideological system/s where every phenomenon is marked by evaluation

the expression of the underlying ideological system – through stories, conversations, actions, choices and needs

INNOVATION LANDSCAPE

INNOVATION

LANDSCAPEInnovation landscape is where we look at businesses and

organizations looking for emergent innovations, start-ups, new features and new modes of delivery or value creation

INNOVATION

LANDSCAPE

it is important to expand the focus into surrounding industries and look for innovations that are based on the same principles or related

in some way to what we identify in our starting industry/area

SCOPE

MACRO-DIMENSIONS

MACRO-DIMENSIONS

macro-dimensions describe different areas that have influence on our lives

culture lifestyle consumption environment

governance organizations technology

community demographics education

culture lifestyle consumption environment

governance organizations technology

community demographics education

we are looking at shifts, events and changes in any of the macro-dimensions or any other life-affecting spheres that come in between (i. e.

scarcity of resources)

WHAT TO LOOK FOR?

VALUES AND BEHAVIORS

behaviors and needsbeliefs and values

FUNDAMENTAL LEVELThis is called the FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL for a reason. It means that the changes that happen on this level are

tectonic and can be observed over longer periods of time

this describes the ideological system with all possible positions or states and evaluations of

these positions (positive, neutral, negative, unmarked) that we base our actions upon

behaviors and needs is already a specific expression of the ideological system – it’s how we choose to act, evaluate our actions, expect and demand from others and our environment

A SYSTEM AN EXPRESSION

behaviors and needsbeliefs and values

FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL

A SYSTEM AN EXPRESSION

we can not witness beliefs and values directly – we first need to observe how people act, talk, express their opinions, choose or

ignore things. From this we can reconstruct the underlying value system.

1. BELIEFSAND VALUESThe ideological system that underlies all changes and evaluation or reception of change.

2. BEHAVIORSAND NEEDSSpecific expressions of our ideological system through conversations, interactions, choices and needs

3. MACRODIMENSIONSDimensions that have influence on our everyday lives and that constitute our living environment.

THE ANATOMY OF A TREND

4. INNOVATIONLANDSCAPEDevelopments within organizational and business sectors that reveal the changing consumer needs

to specificfrom abstract

a trend is a systemic change that manifests itself on the four levels of the trend framework

OUR WORKING DEFINITION OF A TREND

MEGA-TRENDS

FAD

trends can be understood as a specific hierarchy where the most general and pervasive trends are

tagged as macro-trends and the most localized and disconnected ones are classified as fads

DIFFERENT TYPES

TREND TREND TREND

FAD

OF TRENDS

MEGA-TRENDS

FAD

TREND TREND TREND

FAD

abstract andgeneral

specific and localized

too broad to be applicable

too short-lived and specific to be applied

higher certainty

lower certainty

MEGA-TREND

A MEGA-TRENDAn over-arching trend that manifests itself

across at least several industries and is related to changes in at least several

macro-dimensions. A mega-trend marks a shift in values and beliefs.

A MEGA-TREND

NATURAL LIVING

An over-arching trend that manifests itself across at least several industries and is related to changes in at least several

macro-dimensions. A mega-trend marks a shift in values and beliefs.

and also was related to changes in consumption habits, communication and branding, sourcing and production practices

the quest for natural living has resulted in changes

and innovations across a number of industries

TREND

A TRENDis a change that is reflected in

innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs

A TRENDis a change that is reflected in

innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs

INNOVATIONS

trend manifests itself through industry innovations – the stronger the trend, the more innovations will proliferate across different and

sometimes unrelated industries

A TRENDis a change that is reflected in

innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs

INNOVATIONS

MACRO-DIMENSIONS

trends resonate through shifts and changes in our environments, be it communities, organizations or consumption patterns

A TRENDis a change that is reflected in

innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs

INNOVATIONS

MACRO-DIMENSIONS

VALUES, BELIEFS

trends resonate with values, beliefs – this is the deepest level that allows the trend

to rise to prominence

A TREND AND A MEGA-TREND

a trend describes changes within a specified space in our lives, a combination

of trends can constitute a mega-trend

A TRENDa mega-trend is an abstract concept that explains changes happening in

multiple dimensions

A MEGA-TREND

A TREND AND A MEGA-TREND

identifying a mega-trend is important as it allows to define the relationships between separate trends, but is not as actionable and specific as a specific

trend

ACTIONABLE

AUTHENTICITY MOVEMENT

could be considered a mega-trend as it can be manifested across different industries and

result in changes of our relationship with business practices, consumption and

environment

AN EXAMPLE

AUTHENTICITY MOVEMENT

could be considered a mega-trend as it can be manifested across different industries and

result in changes of our relationship with business practices, consumption and

environment

CRAFT CULTUREit just a specific trend that makes a part of

the authenticity movement

AN EXAMPLE

A FAD

-A FAD-can be one of the following:

SHORT-LIVED TREND

A short-lived trend that does not connect to the fundamental level, i. e. values, beliefs and needs,

and that does not have a strong connection to the changes in the macro-dimensions of our lives

EXPRESSION OF A TREND

A particular expression of a trend within a specific field that does not hold for long and

loses its momentum. Usually tied just to a particular industry.

NOT EVERYTHING THAT FAILS IS A

FADspecific trends fail all the time – it doesn’t mean that

they are something to be ignored. Your task is to identify whether the trend that failed connects to

something bigger or not. If it does, you will likely see it resurface.

WHY SHOULD WE USE THE FRAMEWORK?

ANALYSIS TOOL

EVALUATION TOOL

The trend framework serves a couple of purposes:

First of all, it is an analysis tool that enables to discover and group trend manifestations. This is the essential work for identifying a new trend or the evolution of an existing one.

Secondly, it is an evaluation tool – going through all the parts of the framework allows to assess the longevity and potential of the trend in question.

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WHAT IS A TREND?

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