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The Rogers Diffusion Curve maps the progress of adoption from invention through embrace to the final state. In these slides, that model is applied to the use of technology in the legal marketplace.
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The Rogers Diffusion Curve:Applied to the Legal Industry
William HendersonIndiana University Maurer School of Law
Lawyer Metrics LLC
“[A]ll models are wrong, but some are
useful.” -- George E.P. Box,
Statistician
Rogers Diffusion Curve
Time
Rogers Diffusion Curve
100%
50%
Time
Figure 1. Percentage of Farm Operators First Hearing of Hybrid Seed Corn and Percentages First Accepting It, by years
Source: Ryan, B., & Gross, N. C. (1943). The diffusion of hybrid seed corn in two Iowa communities. Rural Sociology 8:15-24.
Percentage of Total Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed
Source: “Hybrid Corn: An Explanation in the Economics of Technological Change” in Technology, Education, and Productivity (1988).
Percentage of Total Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed
Manufacturing Finance Medicine Consulting
Law
Source: “Hybrid Corn: An Explanation in the Economics of Technological Change” in Technology, Education, and Productivity (1988).
Corporate Growth
Legal Complexity
19841914
Rise of the Large Firms
Reality
Experience and Perception
© William D Henderson, 2014
Corporate Growth
Legal Complexity
19841914
Rise of the Large Firms
Reality
Experience and Perception
2014
Higher profits
© William D Henderson, 2014
Corporate Growth
Legal Complexity
19841914
Rise of the Large Firms
Reality
Experience and Perception
Higher profits
2014 2044
Search for substitutes to
deal with cost and quality
© William D Henderson, 2014
Two Hemispheres
Hemisphere 1:
People Clients
Hemisphere 2:
Organizational Clients
Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
“Tw
o-H
em
isphere
s”
X
YPe
ople
C
lien
ts
© William D Henderson, 2014
BigLaw
Criminal Defense /
Public Defenders
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
Artisan Guild
Org
an
izati
ona
l C
lients
Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
“Tw
o-H
em
isphere
s”
X
YPe
ople
C
lien
ts
© William D Henderson, 2014
BigLaw
Criminal Defense /
Public Defenders
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
Artisan Guild
Org
an
izati
ona
l C
lients
Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
“Tw
o-H
em
isphere
s”
X
YPe
ople
C
lien
ts
© William D Henderson, 2014
Criminal Defense /
Public Defenders
BigLaw
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
Artisan Guild Multidisciplinary Teams
Low Cost Providers
Org
an
izati
ona
l C
lients
Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
“Tw
o-H
em
isphere
s”
X
YPe
ople
C
lien
ts
© William D Henderson, 2014
Criminal Defense /
Public Defenders
BigLaw
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer
PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal
Force
Artisan Guild Multidisciplinary Teams
Low Cost Providers
Org
an
izati
ona
l C
lients
Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
“Tw
o-H
em
isphere
s”
X
YPe
ople
C
lien
ts
© William D Henderson, 2014
Criminal Defense /
Public Defenders
BigLaw
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer
PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal
Force
e-Discovery Vendors
Artisan Guild Multidisciplinary Teams
Low Cost Providers
Org
an
izati
ona
l C
lients
Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
“Tw
o-H
em
isphere
s”
X
YPe
ople
C
lien
ts
© William D Henderson, 2014
Criminal Defense /
Public Defenders
BigLaw
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer
PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal
Force
e-Discovery Vendors
LeanLawe.g.,
Seyfarth
NewLaw – e.g. Axiom, Novus
In-House Vertical Integration
Artisan Guild Multidisciplinary Teams
Low Cost Providers
Org
an
izati
ona
l C
lients
Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
“Tw
o-H
em
isphere
s”
X
YPe
ople
C
lien
tsO
rgan
izati
ona
l C
lients
© William D Henderson, 2014
Criminal Defense /
Public Defenders
BigLaw
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer
PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal
Force
e-Discovery Vendors
LeanLawe.g.,
Seyfarth
NewLaw – e.g. Axiom, Novus
In-House Vertical Integration
TechLawKM &
Analytics Vendors
E.g., kCura,Recommind, Lex Machina
Artisan Guild Multidisciplinary Teams
Low Cost Providers
Variables Determining Rate of Adoption
Dependent Variable to Be Explained
Perceived Attributes of Innovation1. Relative Advantage2. Compatibility 3. Complexity 4. Trialability 5. Observability
Type of Innovation-Decision1. Optional 2. Collective 3. Authority
Communication ChannelsIncreased by more and better mediums
Efforts of Change Agents Educational and promotional efforts
Nature of Social SystemE.g, traditional versus modern, isolated or interconnected to other systems
Rate of Adoption of Innovation
Adapted from Everett Rogers, Diffusion of Innovation Fig 6.1 (2003)
Variables Determining Rate of Adoption
Dependent Variable to Be Explained
Perceived Attributes of Innovation1. Relative Advantage2. Compatibility 3. Complexity 4. Trialability 5. Observability
Type of Innovation-Decision1. Optional 2. Collective 3. Authority
Communication ChannelsIncreased by more and better mediums
Efforts of Change Agents Educational and promotional efforts
Nature of Social SystemE.g, traditional versus modern, isolated or interconnected to other systems
Rate of Adoption of Innovation
Adapted from Everett Rogers, Diffusion of Innovation Fig 6.1 (2003)
Relative Advantage Substitutes to make better, faster, or cheaper Reducing Complexity Making adoption incremental and natural Creating Observability Showcasing others’ successes (cornfields) Allowing Trialability Pilots to decrease fear of adoption Decision-Making Mandated vs optional vs collective Communication Channel Mass media vs interpersonal vs internet Leaders and Laggards Across and within organizations Interconnectedness The whole is greater than the sum of its parts
Increasing the Speed of Innovation: Lessons Learned
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