The Future of Telecom and The End Of Control by Futurist Gerd Leonhard

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Telecoms andTelecoms andTheThe End of End of ControlControl

By Gerd Leonhard

www.mediafuturist.comwww.endofcontrol.com

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

A few thoughts on the current crisisA few thoughts on the current crisis• This is indeed a major paradigm shift

• Now is a good time to have real, 2-way conversations with your customers, and to

maintain / build trust (consider blogs & twitter, video, wikis…)

• There is no new Cookbook or Recipe, yet - sorry!

• Whoever will empower the USERS the most, will win - especially now!

• Great time to exploit latent opportunities

• Biggest opportunity is to ‘Lubricate theDigital Economy’ *Simon Torrance, Telco2.0

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3 key aspects:3 key aspects:

Increasing fragmentation everywhereIncreasing fragmentation everywhere

< Having< HavingConversationsConversationsbecomes morebecomes more

important than everimportant than everbeforebefore

< Collaboration is< Collaboration ismore important thanmore important than

ever beforeever before

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Data PipeContent PipeService Pipe Connect People

Connect Content

Telco Futures:Provide Platform for Experiences

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Get ready for some serious role changesGet ready for some serious role changes……

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist DonDon’’t be t be ‘‘too little too latetoo little too late’’ ! !"The company reported 3rd quarter net income of $6.5 million, compared to$13.4 million for the same period last year. Advertising declined 16% in the

quarter after reporting an 11% fall for the first half of the year.Print advertising took the biggest hit with an 18.3% fall for the quarter, with

classified advertising down 28%. Online advertising was up10.2% …. but the online gains were not enough to offset the decline in

print.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Scenes from the pastScenes from the past

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Do you like Control more thannew Revenues?

Was: More Control = More MoneyWill be: Less Control = More Growth

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

CallsSMS

Data

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

CallsSMS / MMS

DataContentServices

Experiences

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Instead of Control:Instead of Control:

• User empowerment• User participation• User engagement• Transparency• Openness• Collaboration

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Now, People will subscribe to People.And to Mass Media.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Future: connecting The Future: connecting Users toUsers to UsersUsers is the is the keykey

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Connected Connected Users =Users = Control ShiftControl Shift

We can find out ...anything

We decide who gets to market to us

We find out we can actually do stuff, too *

We are starting to question traditional rules

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

We can (could) control Copies - but not ‘Feeding’

We can (could) control PUSH - but not PULL

We can (could) control Closed - but not Open

We can (could) control Data - but not Community

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Future Role of Telcos and Operators:Content, Service, Experience and Data Pipes

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Social Networking and SocialMedia is the next SMS.

X 10But:

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The rise of Professional AmateursThe rise of Professional AmateursNow, every user is also a….

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Welcome to the Welcome to the PeoplePeopleFormerlyFormerly KnownKnown AsAs ……

AudienceConsumerListener

CustomerBuyer

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

HelloHello……

UsersCreators

Contr ibutorsPeers

Producers…

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Authority ?Ownership ?

Control ?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Control Shift ExamplesControl Shift Examples

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

We are rapidly moving from a Command-and-Control to Coordinate-and-Cultivate business culture

(* Thomas Malone, The Future of Work)

Feels Like Free Content (Flat Rates)

Serious Competition for Attention & Permission

Radical Customization and Personalization

Advertising becomes… Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The resultThe result of this new of this new Broadband CultureBroadband Culture is the is theradicalradical disruption of:disruption of:

Production

CopyrightOwnershipCompetition

Authority

Control

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Copy Economy

Access &Usage

Economy

Content Futures:Content Futures:

Attentionis the newCurrency

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

And whereAnd where’’s the new money?s the new money?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Some related future predictions:Some related future predictions:

Free Internet access becomes the default in many places

A lot of premium content will be bundled (and paid for by 3rd parties)

TV, Radio & the Web will converge completely

Every single user will be engaged in social networks

50% of the ~850 Billion global advertising budget will shift to digital /

interactive / next-generation ‘advertising’

Up to 50% of content will be generated by the Users, within 5 years

Open platforms will become the default within 2-3 years

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Some important Issues to solveSome important Issues to solve

However: the economic potential of anOpen Network - of ‘Too Much

Freedom’ - will always be much largerthan that of a Closed, Controlled and

Authoritarian Network

Privacy becomes almost impossible to maintain

Data & Identity Theft become more common

Continuous Partial Attention is becoming more common

Culture changes as Digital Natives take over

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Operator 2.0 KeywordsOperator 2.0 Keywords

Attention not ControlExperience Provider

Freemium‘Lifestyle Apps’ & APIs

UGC FacilitationContent flat rates & “Feels like Free”New roles & new collaborations

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

DataDataVoiceVoice

ContentContentExperiencesExperiences

ServicesServices

Telco 2.0Telco 2.0

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Go easier on the Control key…

Now is the time to TakeShare, Transform & Lead

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Your biggestOpportunity is here -

and Now.