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The Four Forces of Change
Looking Forward:Opportunities in an Open World
Cecily SommersMay 5, 2011
the four forces of change
SUSTAINABILITYBrundtland Commission of the United Nations, 1987
Development that "meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."
Trends
the four forces of change
GOVERNANCE
DEMOGRAPHICS
TECHNOLOGY
RESOURCES
4 Forces
CHANGE AGENT
the four forces of change
GOVERNANCE
DEMOGRAPHICS
TECHNOLOGY
RESOURCES
FUTURIST
the four forces of change
the four forces of change
Remembering the future
Learning, Memory
Senses
Left Hemisphere
Language
Right Hemisphere
Imagery
Motivation & Emotion
Autonomic System: Pain, Arousal
L: KNOW
R: NEW
L: DO
the antidote
Agenda
the four forces of change
PART I: KNOWPlaying to long-term needs and opportunities
ChipDale
The Four Forces of Change
four forces
technology
resources
demographics
law marketsgovernance
the four forces of change
RESOURCES
© Cecily Sommers, 2011
ResourcesFour Forces
DRIVERS:◦ Climate◦ Ocean◦ Space◦ Energy◦ Minerals◦ Water◦ Land◦ Food◦ Animals◦ Habitat◦ Forest
the four forces of change
the four forces of change
four forces_resourcesthe four forces of change
four forces_resourcesthe four forces of change
four forces
law
resources
markets
food energy water
ISSUES
TRENDS
INTEGRATION
the four forces of change
TECHNOLOGY
© Cecily Sommers, 2011
TechnologyFour Forces
DRIVERS:◦ Genetics◦ Robotics◦ Information◦ Nanotechnology◦ Health care◦ Education◦ Collaboration◦ Virtual reality◦ Games◦ Telephony◦ Manufacturing◦ Infrastructure
law markets
health energycommunications
technology
roboticsinfrastructur
e
the four forces of change
DEMOGRAPHICS
DRIVERS:◦ 6.1 B in 2000◦ 9B in 2050◦ Developing ++◦ Industrial ---◦ Immigration◦ Multi-cultural◦ Multi-lingual◦ Nationalism◦ Conflict◦ Capital formation
© Cecily Sommers, 2011
DemographicsFour Forces
the four forces of change
four forces_demographicsthe four forces of change
law markets
migration
laboryouth
demographics
mortalitymulti-ethnic
four forces_demographicsthe four forces of change
GOVERNANCE
DRIVERS:
◦ Tribalism
◦ Market drivers
◦ Values
◦ Interests
◦ Beliefs
◦ Onlinecommunities
◦ Personalization
◦ Polarization
© Cecily Sommers, 2011
GovernanceFour Forces
the four forces of change
the four forces of change
31the four forces of change
32the four forces of change
PART II: NEWCreative problem-solving
• “Like That!”
• Play
• Time Out
the four forces of change
Pour & Stir
NEW
◦ Business need◦ Futures research◦ Brand experience◦ New technologies◦ Scenario
development◦ Outside experts◦ Experiential
exploration◦ “Like That”◦ “Fill the Box”◦ Having it all◦ “Duh!,” “Love it!”,
High Risk/Reward◦ Chunking it down◦ First Movable Piece◦ Deliverables,
resource requests, Q-2-Q
© Cecily Sommers, 2011
ZONE OF DISCOVERY
Sustainability R3. O. I.
the four forces of change
Relevance
Resilience
Revenue
the four forces of change
Managing for Resilience
the four forces of change
Managing for Resilience
“Sustainability is the pivot for where we want to go--how we want to structure our processes, our thinking, our investments. Through redesigning the way we work and live, we consider sustainability as part of everything we do. We have learned one basic lesson, and that is that unless it is synonymous--business and planet--it doesn't get traction.”
Muhtar Kent , CEO, Coca-Cola
the four forces of change
Managing for Resilience
Investment in investment in three core areas: 1) business planning, 2) innovation, and 3) partnerships.
“Live Positively” program. • “Water Neutral” and reducing its carbon footprint
by 2015.• Biodegradable plant-based plastics. • Co-developed Truvia with Cargill• Partner with Greenpeace to eliminate all
hydroflourocarbon gases in venting machines
PART III: DOIntegrating ideas into action
four forces
Duh!
Love it!OMG!
the four forces of change
Assumptions, Outcomes, Resources
• 10 Years• 5 years
• 2 years• 1 year
• 6 months• 3 months…
the antidote
Plan in Reverse
the four forces of change
four forces
Duh! Love it! High Risk/Reward
the four forces of change
the four forces of change
“The to plant
a tree was ago.”best time20 years
Chinese Proverb
CHANGE AGENT
the four forces of change
thankyou!@cecilysommers
cecily@bluedogdesign.com
www.bluedogdesign.comthe four forces of change
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