Slide pack, Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, December 2013

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland  Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & 

Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector

December 2013 Survey Update 

Issued 13th

January 2014

Richard Ramsey

Chief Economist Northern Ireland

richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com

Twitter @UB_Economics

PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’

Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies 

which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy 

by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and

prices across different 

sectors.

Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents

reporting an 

improvement, no change or decline on the previous month.  These indices vary from 0 to 

100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above 

50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or 

deterioration.  The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater

the rate of change 

(expansion or contraction).  The indices are seasonally adjusted

to take into consideration 

expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays. 

< 50.0 = Contraction         50.0 = No Change       > 50.0 = Expansion

Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages

have been used to 

more accurately identify the broad trends.

Global output growth ends the year expanding at a faster rate than it started 2013 for both sectors

Global Output - PMI

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Apr-07 Feb-08 Dec-08 Oct-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Apr-12 Feb-13 Dec-13

Total Manufacturing Services

Source: Markit Economics

ExpansionC

ontraction

The Eurozone started 2013 will all sectors contracting now only construction is waiting for a return to growth

Eurozone PMIs: Output

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13

Composite (M&S) Manufacturing Services Construction

Source: Markit Economics Output Indices Expansion

Contraction

Vast majority of economies posting output growth with US & the UK the top performers. France is still contracting

PMIs: Manufacturing Output December 2013

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

FranceAustralia

SingaporeIndonesia

RussiaGreece

S.KoreaIndia

Israel**ChinaBrazil

VietnamSpain

MexicoSwitzerland

PolandCanada

S.Africa*IrelandTurkey

EZGlobal

EUNI

ItalyCzech Republic

DenmarkAustria

GermanyJapan

TaiwanNetherlandsN.Zealand*

UKUS

Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *November ** October. For the US ISM is used.

UK, NI & RoI

€

The Republic of Ireland, the UK and NI post the fastest rates of service sector output growth in December

PMIs: Services Output December 2013

35 40 45 50 55 60 65

AustraliaIndia

FranceItaly

ChinaEZ

Emerging MarketsBrazil

JapanEU

GermanyRussiaGlobalSpain

US*NI

UKIreland

Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, * US Non-manufacturing which is wider than services

€

Composite PMIs for Ireland, Spain and Italy all improve in December while France sees its contraction accelerate

Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Apr-07 Feb-08 Dec-08 Oct-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Apr-12 Feb-13 Dec-13

Source: Markit Economics PMIs

Contraction

Expansion

The UK, US & China saw their composite PMIs slip in December while the Eurozone’s moved higher

Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jun-08 May-09 Apr-10 Mar-11 Feb-12 Jan-13 Dec-13

Eurozone US (ISM) China UK

Source: Markit Economics PMIs, US includes construction

ExpansionC

ontraction

The US, Japan & the Eurozone all posted an acceleration in manufacturing activity in December

Manufacturing PMIs

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jun-08 May-09 Apr-10 Mar-11 Feb-12 Jan-13 Dec-13

US (ISM) China Japan Eurozone No Change

Source: Markit Economics

Contraction

Expansion

Growth eased in the Emerging Markets PMI due to a slowdown in China and India

Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jul-07 Jun-08 May-09 Apr-10 Mar-11 Feb-12 Jan-13 Dec-13

Brazil Russia India Emerging Markets No Change

Source: Markit Economics

Contraction

Expansion

Australia’s manufacturing and services sectors remain in contraction territory in December

Australia - PMI

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Apr-07 Feb-08 Dec-08 Oct-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Apr-12 Feb-13 Dec-13

Manufacturing Services No Change

Source: Markit Economics PMIs

Contraction

Expansion

The UK & NI see growth rates ease in December while the RoI’s posts an acceleration in its rate of growth

Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

NI UK RoI

Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI50 = threshold between expansion / contraction

Expansion

Contraction

**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**

PMI suggests growth in DFP’s new private sector composite index (combines indices for construction, services, agriculture & industrial production) in Q3 & Q4

NI Private Sector Output Index Versus NI PMI

-6-5-4

-3-2-1012

345

2003 Q2 2004 Q4 2006 Q2 2007 Q4 2009 Q2 2010 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4

PSO Q/Q%

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

PMI NICEI Left Hand Scale PMI Right Hand Scale

Source: New DFP Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) & Ulster Bank / Markit Economics NI PMI

50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI

Expansion

Contraction

NI firms report an acceleration in job creation but pace of business activity & new orders growth slows

NI Private Sector ActivityMonthly

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

Business Activity New Business Employment

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

ExpansionC

ontraction

Buoyant order books suggest more growth in the months ahead. New orders remain close to recent 9-year high

Private Sector New OrdersMonthly

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

NI UK RoI

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI

Orders increasing

Orders C

ontracting

Surge in demand is leading to backlogs of work with NI index accelerating rapidly in Q4

Private Sector Backlogs3 month moving average

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Dec-03 Aug-05 Apr-07 Dec-08 Aug-10 Apr-12 Dec-13

NI UK RoI

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Increasing D

ecreasing

NI firms post their 6th successive rise in export orders with December the fastest rate of growth in over 6 years

NI New Export Business

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

New Export Orders No Change

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

ExpansionC

ontraction

PMI underestimated QES job gains in 2012. PMI for Q3 signals fastest rate of jobs growth since Q4 2007 with even stronger growth in Q4

NI Employment: PMI v QES*

35

40

45

50

55

60

2003 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 Q4 2009 Q4 2011 Q4 2013 Q4

PMI Index

-1.5%

-1.3%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.5%

-0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.5%

0.8%

1.0%Q/Q

PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q

*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI & includes public sector

Discontinuity in QES Series

Job losses

Job gains

Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction

UK, RoI & NI firms all experienced strong rates of job creation in December

Private Sector Employment LevelsMonthly

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13

NI UK RoI

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Job Gains

Job Losses

Private sector’s profitability squeeze remains but pricing power is on the rise

NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze3 Month Moving Average

30

40

50

60

70

80

Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13

Output Prices Input Prices No Change

InflationD

eflation

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Profits squeeze

Price of goods & services rising

Regional Comparisons

Strong growth across all UK regions and the RoI in December

Output / Business ActivityDecember 2013

50 = No change

56.5

59.558.6

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

SW WM NE Lon SE East UK EM NW Wal NI Y&H Scot RoI

PMI Index

ExpansionC

ontractionSource: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

…all the UK regions & the RoI post growth in Q4

Output / Business Activity Q4 2013

50 = No change

58.1 57.7

60.5

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Lon SW EM SE UK NW WM East Wal NI NE Y&H Scot RoI

PMI Index

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Expansion

Contraction

… and over the last 12 months

Output / Business Activity2013

50 = No change

53.4

56.6

54.2

45

50

55

60

Lon NW SE EM Wal UK SW Y&H East WM Scot NI NE RoI

PMI Index

ExpansionC

ontractionSource: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

All the UK regions and the Republic of Ireland post employment growth in December …

Employment LevelsDecember 2013

50 = No change

55.254.5

55.4

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

SW Lon SE UK NW East NI WM Y&H Scot EM Wal NE RoI

PMI Index

IncreasingD

ecreasingSource: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

… and over the last 3 months

Employment LevelsQ4 2013

50 = No change

55.2

52.9

55.5

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

Lon SW SE UK East WM NW Wal NI Scot EM Y&H NE RoI

PMI Index

IncreasingD

ecreasing

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

NI posts its first annual increase in private sector employment since 2007

Employment Levels2013

50 = No change

52.6

53.5

50.4

46

48

50

52

54

56

WM Lon SE SW East UK NW Scot Wal EM NE Y&H NI RoI

PMI Index

IncreasingD

ecreasing

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Sectoral Comparisons

All 3 UK sectors maintain strong rates of growth in December

UK Business Activity / Output - PMIs

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13

Services Manufacturing Construction

Source: Markit Economics

ExpansionC

ontraction

UK posts strong rates of economic growth in Q2-Q4

UK GDP versus UK Composite PMIUK Composite includes Construction

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4

PMI Index

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5GDP Q/Q

GDP Q/Q PMI PMI No Change

Source: ONS & Markit Economics

The RoI’s manufacturing & service sectors experience a pick-up in their growth rates in December

RoI Business Activity - PMIsMonthly

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Apr-07 Feb-08 Dec-08 Oct-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Apr-12 Feb-13 Dec-13

Manufacturing Services Construction No Change

Source: Markit Economics

Contraction

Expansion

All 3 broad sectors within NI saw robust rates of output growth in Q4

Northern Ireland Private Sector Output 3 month moving average

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

Manufacturing Services Construction

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Expansion

Contraction

…with all sectors also reporting job gains over the last 3 months

NI PMI - Employment Index 3 month moving average

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13

Manufacturing Services Construction

Source: Markit Economics &Ulster Bank NI PMI

Job Gains

Job Losses

NI manufacturers continue to report strong rates of growth in orders, employment & output over the last 3 months

NI Manufacturing Activity3 month moving average

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13

Business activity New Orders Employment

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI

Grow

th acceleratingC

ontraction accelerating

UK, RoI & NI manufacturing firms continue to post strong rates of growth in output during the last 3 months

Manufacturing Output3 month moving average

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

UK NI RoI No Change

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Contraction

Expansion

The UK posts the strongest rate of growth in new orders

Manufacturing New Orders3 month moving average

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

UK NI RoI No Change

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Contraction

Expansion

Lately NI has been outperforming its European competitors

Manufacturing Output - PMI

20

30

40

50

60

70

Apr-07 Feb-08 Dec-08 Oct-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Apr-12 Feb-13 Dec-13

RoI Italy Spain Greece NI

Source: Markit Economics PMIs

Contraction

Expansion

Cost price inflation remains for local manufacturing firms but pricing power is improving due to increased demand

NI Manufacturing Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average

30

40

50

60

70

80

Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13

No Change Input Costs Output Prices

InflationD

eflation

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Profits squeeze

PMI underestimated jobs surge in Q2. Following further job creation in Q3, PMI suggests more of the same in Q4

NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI v QES*

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2003 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 Q4 2009 Q4 2011 Q4 2013 Q4

PMI Index

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Q/Q

PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q

Discontinuity in QES Series

Job losses

Job gains

*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms

Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction

Recent growth in NI service sector output has fed through into higher levels of employment…

NI Service Sector (excludes Retail)3 month moving average

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

Business activity New Orders Employment

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI

Grow

th acceleratingC

ontraction accelerating

All 3 economies post strong growth in services output in December with NI & RoI activity accelerating in Q4…

Services Output (excluding Retail)3 month moving average

30

40

50

60

70

Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13

UK NI RoI No Change

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Contraction

Expansion

… and an acceleration in new orders growth too

Services New Orders (excluding Retail ) 3 month moving average

30

40

50

60

70

Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13

UK NI RoI No Change

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Contraction

Expansion

Output prices within service sector firms over the last 3 months rise at their fastest rate in over 5 years

NI Services Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average

30

40

50

60

70

80

Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

No Change Input Costs Output Prices

InflationD

eflation

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI

Profits squeeze

Employment growth is accelerating within the service sector in the UK, RoI and NI in Q4

Services Employment3 month moving average

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

UK RoI NI No Change

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Contraction

Expansion

In Q4 the services PMI shows the fastest rate of quarterly jobs growth since Q4 2007

NI Services Employment: PMI v QES*

40

45

50

55

60

65

2003 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 Q4 2009 Q4 2011 Q4 2013 Q4

PMI Index

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Q/Q

PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q

Discontinuity in QES Series

Job losses

Job gains

*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI and includes the public sector

Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction

NI retailers continue to report strong rates of growth in business activity and new orders in December

Northern Ireland Retail PMI3 monthly average

25

35

45

55

65

75

Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13

Business Activity New Orders Backlogs No Change

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Expansion

Contraction

Local retailers maintain pricing power in December

NI Retail Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13

Input Costs Output Prices No Change

InflationD

eflation

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI

Profits squeeze

NI construction sector continues to report growth in output, new orders & employment over the last 3 months

NI Construction PMI3 month moving average

20

30

40

50

60

Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13

Output New Orders Employment

Source: Markit Economics, Ulster Bank PMI

ExpansionC

ontraction

50 = No change

…and output prices have been rising

NI Construction Sector Profits Squeeze3 month moving average

20

30

40

50

60

70

Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13

PMI IndexInput Prices Output Prices No Change

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank

InflationD

eflation

NI’s construction PMI posted its 1st quarter of jobs growth in Q3 2013 since Q4 2007 with further growth in Q4

NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES*

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2003 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 Q4 2009 Q4 2011 Q4 2013 Q4

PMI Index

-10.0%

-7.5%

-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

Q/Q

PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q

Discontinuity in QES Series

Job losses

Job gains

**QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms

Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction

Construction output growth accelerates in the UK & RoI over the last 3 months and remains strong in NI

Construction Sector Output - PMI3 month moving average

20

30

40

50

60

Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13

PMI Index

NI UK RoI

Source: Markit Economics

ExpansionC

ontraction

New orders growth accelerating in all 3 economies

Construction Sector New Orders - PMI3 month moving average

20

30

40

50

60

70

Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13

PMI Index

NI UK RoI

Source: Markit Economics

ExpansionC

ontraction

Opportunities for NI firms within GB market. House building growth recently hit a 10-year high…

UK Construction Activity - PMIs3 month moving average

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13

Housing Activity Commercial Activity Civil Engineering Activity

Source: Markit Economics

ExpansionC

ontraction

…with opportunities returning within the RoI too

Republic of Ireland Construction Activity - PMI3 month moving average

20

30

40

50

60

70

Apr-07 Aug-08 Dec-09 Apr-11 Aug-12 Dec-13

Housing Activity Commercial Activity Engineering Activity

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank

ExpansionC

ontraction

50 = No change

Slide 55

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