Protecting2

PROTECTING YOUR PROJECT MANAGEMENT CAREER

Understanding the Planning Fallacy, Complexity, and the Soul of Project

Management

Dr John Hogan PhD

THAT’S A MOUTHFUL-WHAT DO WE MEAN BY THESE TERMS

PROTECTING YOUR CAREER-

THE PLANNING FALACY-

COMPLEXITY-

THAT’S A MOUTHFUL-WHAT DO WE MEAN BY THESE TERMS

PROTECTING YOUR CAREER-

THE PLANNING FALACY-

COMPLEXITY-

WE’RE GOING TO BE SELFISH IN THIS PRESENTATION. A STAKEHOLDER WILL BE THOUGHT OF AS ANYONE WHO HAS A SAY ON WHETHER YOU ADVANCE IN YOUR CAREER

THAT’S A MOUTHFUL-WHAT DO WE MEAN BY THESE TERMS

PROTECTING YOUR CAREER-

THE PLANNING FALACY-

COMPLEXITY-

WE’RE GOING TO BE SELFISH IN THIS PRESENTATION. A STAKEHOLDER WILL BE THOUGHT OF AS ANYONE WHO HAS A SAY ON WHETHER YOU ADVANCE IN YOUR CAREER

THE INABILITY OF HUMANS TO TAKE OPTIMISM OUT OF THEIR PLANS

THAT’S A MOUTHFUL-WHAT DO WE MEAN BY THESE TERMS

PROTECTING YOUR CAREER-

THE PLANNING FALACY-

COMPLEXITY-

WE’RE GOING TO BE SELFISH IN THIS PRESENTATION. A STAKEHOLDER WILL BE THOUGHT OF AS ANYONE WHO HAS A SAY ON WHETHER YOU ADVANCE IN YOUR CAREER

THE INABILITY OF HUMANS TO TAKE OPTIMISM OUT OF THEIR PLANS

THE UNFORSEEN INTERACTION AND EMERGENT BEHAVIOR OF ENTITIES WHICH CAN AFFECT YOUR PROJECT’S OUTCOME

AND OF COURSE PROJECT MANAGEMENT

THE CREATION OF A NEW AND UNIQUE PRODUCT OR SERVICE OVER A DEFINED PERIOD OF TIME WITH A LIMITED SET OF RESOURCES

PROJECT MANAGEMENT IS COMPOSED OF PLANNING

AND EXECUTION

PROJECT MANAGEMENT IS COMPOSED OF PLANNING

AND EXECUTION

-A PROCESS UNDERTAKEN TO PREDICT THE FUTURE

PROJECT MANAGEMENT IS COMPOSED OF PLANNING

AND EXECUTION

-A PROCESS UNDERTAKEN TO PREDICT THE FUTURE

-COMPLETING TASKS THAT WERE DEFINED IN THE PAST

DOES ANYONE SEE A PROBLEM HERE?

HUMANS CANNOT PREDICT THE FUTURE

WE HAVE THE PLANNING FALLACY(COINED BY NOBEL PRIZE WINNER DANIEL KAHNEMAN IN HIS 2011 BEST SELLER THINKING FAST AND SLOW)

WE HAVE THE PLANNING FALLACY(COINED BY NOBEL PRIZE WINNER DANIEL KAHNEMAN IN HIS 2011 BEST SELLER THINKING FAST AND SLOW)

PROJECT TEAMS ARE EMOTIONALLY AND POLITICALLY DRAWN TO PORTRAYING THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR THEIR COST AND SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE AS THE MOST LIKELY (THE INSIDE VIEW)

WHILE

IGNORING THE PERFORMANCE DATA FROM ALL OTHER PROJECTS IN THEIR REFERENCE CLASS (THE OUTSIDE VIEW)

WE HAVE THE PLANNING FALLACY(COINED BY NOBEL PRIZE WINNER DANIEL KAHNEMAN IN HIS 2011 BEST SELLER THINKING FAST AND SLOW)

PROJECT TEAMS ARE EMOTIONALLY AND POLITICALLY DRAWN TO PORTRAYING THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR THEIR COST AND SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE AS THE MOST LIKELY (THE INSIDE VIEW)

WHILE

IGNORING THE PERFORMANCE DATA FROM ALL OTHER PROJECTS IN THEIR REFERENCE CLASS (THE OUTSIDE VIEW)

FOR EXAMPLE

THE AVERAGE COST/SCHEDULE OVERRUN FOR THE 98 MAJOR DEFENSE ACQUISITION PROGRAMS IS $40B/22 MONTHS

YET, EACH NEW DoD PROJECT TEAM BELIEVES (AND CONVINCES CONGRESS) THEIR INITIATIVE WILL BE DIFFERENT

WE HAVE COMPLEXITY(SEE A LEADER’S FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING BY DAVID J. SNOWDEN AND MARY E. BOONE IN THE 2007 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW)

WE HAVE COMPLEXITY(SEE A LEADER’S FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING BY DAVID J. SNOWDEN AND MARY E. BOONE IN THE 2007 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW)

PROJECT MANAGEMENT BY ITS DEFINITION RESULTS IN UNIQUE PRODUCTS OR SERVICES-PRODUCTS OR SERVICES THAT PREVIOUSLY DID NOT EXIST

IF THESE PRODUCTS OR SERVICES INTERACT WITH OTHER COMPONENTS, ALREADY DEVELOPED OR IN DEVELOPMENT, THE PROACTIVE PROJECT MANAGER MUST BE AWARE OF THESE INTERACTIONS

WE HAVE COMPLEXITY(SEE A LEADER’S FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING BY DAVID J. SNOWDEN AND MARY E. BOONE IN THE 2007 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW)

PROJECT MANAGEMENT BY ITS DEFINITION RESULTS IN UNIQUE PRODUCTS OR SERVICES-PRODUCTS OR SERVICES THAT PREVIOUSLY DID NOT EXIST

IF THESE PRODUCTS OR SERVICES INTERACT WITH OTHER COMPONENTS, ALREADY DEVELOPED OR IN DEVELOPMENT, THE PROACTIVE PROJECT MANAGER MUST BE AWARE OF THESE INTERACTIONS

IF THE INTERACTING COMPONENTS PROCESS INFORMATION IN A SOPHISTICATED FASHION ADAPTATION AND SELF-ORGANIZING BEHAVIORS CAN EMERGE THAT HAVE AN UNPREDICTABLE IMPACT ON A PROJECT’S COST, SCHEDULE, OR FUNCTIONALITY

WE HAVE COMPLEXITY(SEE A LEADER’S FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING BY DAVID J. SNOWDEN AND MARY E. BOONE IN THE 2007 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW)

PROJECT MANAGEMENT BY ITS DEFINITION RESULTS IN UNIQUE PRODUCTS OR SERVICES-PRODUCTS OR SERVICES THAT PREVIOUSLY DID NOT EXIST

IF THESE PRODUCTS OR SERVICES INTERACT WITH OTHER COMPONENTS, ALREADY DEVELOPED OR IN DEVELOPMENT, THE PROACTIVE PROJECT MANAGER MUST BE AWARE OF THESE INTERACTIONS

IF THE INTERACTING COMPONENTS PROCESS INFORMATION IN A SOPHISTICATED FASHION ADAPTATION AND SELF-ORGANIZING BEHAVIORS CAN EMERGE THAT HAVE AN UNPREDICTABLE IMPACT ON A PROJECT’S COST, SCHEDULE, OR FUNCTIONALITY

FOR EXAMPLE

THE JAVA PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE WAS ORIGINALLY TARGETED FOR INTERACTIVE TV. THE DIGITAL CABLE INDUSTRY AT THAT TIME WAS NOT ABLE TO APPLY THIS TECHNOLOGY, BUT THE NEWLY EMERGING INTERNET WAS. THE NETSCAPE BROWSER ADOPTED JAVA AND THE REST IS HSTORY.

HOW DOES THIS INABILITY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE AFFECT YOUR CAREER PROSPECTS?

HOW DOES THIS INABILITY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE AFFECT YOUR CAREER PROSPECTS?

YOU MAY BE HELD RESPONSIBLE WHEN THE FUTURE DOES NOT TURN OUT THE WAY YOUR STAKEHOLDERS HAD HOPED

SO LET’S TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT PLANNING AND EXECUTION

IN THE PLANNING PHASE WE JUGGLE THE BALLS OF FUNCTIONALITY COST AND SCHEDULE UNTIL WE HAVE AN EXECUTABLE BASELINE -at least we think it is

BASELINE

THE BASELINE IS NO MORE THAN THE CONCENSUS OPINION (AMOUNG OURSELVES AND OUR STAKEHOLDERS) OF WHAT THE FUTURE WILL BE

THE STAKEHOLDERS WATCH US AND OFFER THEIR OPINION ON OUR ABILITY TO BUILD THIS BASELINE

BASELINE

Nice job

Very thorough

Nice suit

Can I leave now

BUSINESS PROPOSITION BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

COST

SCHEDULESCOPE

THE FUTURE COMES SOONER THAN WE THINK AND IN THE EXECUTION PHASE JUGGLING BALLS TURNS INTO JUGGLING CHAINSAWS AND THE TERRA FIRMA OF THE PLAN BECOMES THE REAL WORLD -you’re a little more interesting to watch now

AND NOW THE STAKEHOLDERS BECOME MORE ANIMATED

BUSINESS PROPOSITION BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

COST

SCHEDULE

SCOPE

Who decided that

That’s gonna cost us

What were you thinking

Where’s the leadership been on this project

IF THE CHAINSAWS ARE TAKING SIGNIFICANT CHUNKS OUT OF FUNCTIONALITY, SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE, OR ROI A DECISION MUST BE MADE ABOUT OUR PROJECT MANAGER

IF THE CHAINSAWS ARE TAKING SIGNIFICANT CHUNKS OUT OF FUNCTIONALITY, SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE, OR ROI A DECISION MUST BE MADE ABOUT OUR PROJECT MANAGER SEND HIM OR HER BACK FOR MORE PROJECT

MANAGEMENT TRAINING-THE PLAN MUST HAVE BEEN INADEQUATE IN THE FIRST PLACE

ORMAINTAIN CONFIDENCE IN OUR PROJECT MANAGER FIGHTING IT OUT IN BUSINESS ARENA

THIS CONFIDENCE WILL BE PLACED IN THE PROJECT MANAGER IF HE OR SHE CONVEYS THE FOLLOWING CORE BELIEF

THIS CONFIDENCE WILL BE PLACED IN THE PROJECT MANAGER IF HE OR SHE CONVEYS THE FOLLOWING CORE BELIEF

AS A PROJECT MANAGER I AM NOT ACCOUNTABLE FOR FOLLOWING A PROCESS

AS A PROJECT MANAGER I AM ACCOUNTABLE FOR BUILDING A UNIQUE PRODUCT OR SERVICE THAT DELIVERS THE PROMISE OF THE BUSINESS CASE

THIS CORE BELIEF (WHICH I VIEW AS THE SOUL OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT) DRIVES THE PROJECT MANAGER TO MASTER THESE FIVE SKILLS

THIS CORE BELIEF (WHICH I VIEW AS THE SOUL OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT) DRIVES THE PROJECT MANAGER TO MASTER THESE FIVE SKILLS

STRATEGIC THINKINGDECISION MAKINGINFLUENCINGNEGOTIATIONEMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE

STRATEGIC THINKINGFIRST OF ALL IT’S NOT STRATEGIC PLANNING (PUT THAT TEXTBOOK AWAY.)WE’RE AT THE POINT WHERE THE PLAN ISN’T WORKING

AT THIS POINT A PROJECT LEADER (AS OPPOSED TO MANAGER) MUST EMERGE WHO WILL START IDENTIFYING ISSUES WITH:

STRATEGIC THINKINGFIRST OF ALL IT’S NOT STRATEGIC PLANNING (PUT THAT TEXTBOOK AWAY.)WE’RE AT THE POINT WHERE THE PLAN ISN’T WORKING

AT THIS POINT A PROJECT LEADER (AS OPPOSED TO MANAGER) MUST EMERGE WHO WILL START IDENTIFYING ISSUES WITH:

COST ……….NO!

SCHEDULE ……….NO!

RESOURCE ALLOCATION ……….NO!

FUNCTIONALITY ……….NO!

STRATEGIC THINKINGFIRST OF ALL IT’S NOT STRATEGIC PLANNING (PUT THAT TEXTBOOK AWAY.)WE’RE AT THE POINT WHERE THE PLAN ISN’T WORKING

AT THIS POINT A PROJECT LEADER (AS OPPOSED TO MANAGER) MUST EMERGE WHO WILL START IDENTIFYING ISSUES WITH:

COST ……….NO!

SCHEDULE ……….NO!

RESOURCE ALLOCATION ……….NO!

FUNCTIONALITY ……….NO!

OPTIMIZING THE BUSINESS PROPOSITIONTHAT INITIATED THIS PROJECT IN THE FIRST PLACE YES!!!

THESE FIRST ISSUES ARE OBVIOUSLY IMPORTANT BUT THE SAVVY PROJECT LEADER WILL ADDRESS THEM ON THE WAY TO OPTIMIZING THE PROJECT’S BUSINESS PROPOSITION

ORGANIZATIONS VIEW PERFORMANCE THROUGH THE PRISM OF THEIR BUSINESS PROPOSITION-DON’T FORGET THIS FACT OF LIFE

A PROJECT’S BUSINESS PROPOSITIONS IS CONVEYED THROUGH A CRISP GOAL STATEMENT-WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE, AND WHY

PROJECT CONFUSION

A GOOD GOAL STATEMENT IS LIKE A HORSESHOE MAGNET PLACED UNDER A PIECE OF PAPER SUPPORTING RANDOM IRON FILINGS

GOAL STATEMENT

PROJECT CONFUSION

A GOOD GOAL STATEMENT IS LIKE A HORSESHOE MAGNET PLACED UNDER A PIECE OF PAPER SUPPORTING RANDOM IRON FILINGS

GOAL STATEMENT

STAKE HOLDER ALIGNMENT

A GOOD GOAL STATEMENT IS LIKE A HORSESHOE MAGNET PLACED UNDER A PIECE OF PAPER SUPPORTING RANDOM IRON FILINGS

THE FILINGS BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE HORSESHOE MAGNET

MAKE SURE YOUR PROJECT’S GOAL STATEMENT IS AS STRONG AS THAT MAGNET IN ALIGNING YOUR STAKEHOLDERS TO THE PROJECT’S GOAL

BASE YOUR STRATEGIC THINKING OFF OF IT

ESPECIALY THE “WHY”

DECISION MAKING HAS TWO COMPONENTS

MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

WORTH 40%

MAKE THE DECISION RIGHT

MEANING?

CLEARLY AND UNAMBIGUOUSLY COMMUNICATED AND IMPLEMENTED

WORTH 60%

DECISION MAKING HAS TWO COMPONENTS

MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

WORTH 40%

MAKE THE DECISION RIGHT

MEANING?

CLEARLY AND UNAMBIGUOUSLY COMMUNICATED AND IMPLEMENTED

WORTH 60%

HOW MANY TIMES HAVE YOU HEARD (OR SAID) “THE RIGHT HAND DOESN’T KNOW WHAT THE LEFT IS DOING”

DECISION MAKING HAS TWO COMPONENTS

MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

WORTH 40%

MAKE THE DECISION RIGHT

MEANING?

CLEARLY AND UNAMBIGUOUSLY COMMUNICATED AND IMPLEMENTED

WORTH 60%

HOW MANY TIMES HAVE YOU HEARD (OR SAID) “THE RIGHT HAND DOESN’T KNOW WHAT THE LEFT IS DOING”

DO NOT LET THAT BE YOUR LEGACY

INFLUENCING SKILLSACCORDING TO THE EXPERTS THE MOST IMPORTANT IS RECIPROCITY

GO OUT OF YOUR COMFORT ZONE TO HELP OTHERS

MEANING?

INFLUENCING SKILLSACCORDING TO THE EXPERTS THE MOST IMPORTANT IS RECIPROCITY

GO OUT OF YOUR COMFORT ZONE TO HELP OTHERS

MEANING?

AND THEY WILL RETURN THE FAVOR WHEN YOU NEED THEIR SUPPORT

NEGOTIATING SKILLS

DO YOUSELF A FAVOR AND READ “GETTING TO YES” FROM THE GUYS AT HARVARD

NEGOTIATING SKILLS

DO YOUSELF A FAVOR AND READ “GETTING TO YES” FROM THE GUYS AT HARVARD

Learn what BATNA isthe “Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement”and get better results when you negotiate

Learn the difference between Interests and Positions and start collaborating instead of compromising

EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE

THEY SAY IN BUSINESS IT’S NOT WHAT YOU KNOW, BUT WHO YOU KNOW

THEY’RE RIGHT

EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE

THEY SAY IN BUSINESS IT’S NOT WHAT YOU KNOW, BUT WHO YOU KNOW

THEY’RE RIGHT

SO START WITH YOURSELF

IT’S THE FOUNDATION OF EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE

LET’S TAILOR EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE TO THE WORLD OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT

YOU

AWAR

ENES

S DO YOU THRIVE IN THE ARENA OF PROJECT EXECUTION

LET’S TAILOR EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE TO THE WORLD OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT

YOU

AWAR

ENES

S DO YOU THRIVE IN THE ARENA OF PROJECT EXECUTION

CAN YOU CONTROL AND CONVEY YOUR EMOTIONS TO EXPLOIT THE SITUATION AT HAND

CON

TRO

L

LET’S TAILOR EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE TO THE WORLD OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT

YOU

AWAR

ENES

S DO YOU THRIVE IN THE ARENA OF PROJECT EXECUTION

CAN YOU CONTROL AND CONVEY YOUR EMOTIONS TO EXPLOIT THE SITUATION AT HAND

CON

TRO

L

CAN YOU READ STAKEHOLDERS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PLAN

OTHERS

LET’S TAILOR EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE TO THE WORLD OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT

YOU

AWAR

ENES

S DO YOU THRIVE IN THE ARENA OF PROJECT EXECUTION

CAN YOU CONTROL AND CONVEY YOUR EMOTIONS TO EXPLOIT THE SITUATION AT HAND

CON

TRO

L

CAN YOU READ STAKEHOLDERS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PLAN

CAN YOU BRING STAKEHOLDERS TO THE CONCENSUS THAT YOUR WAY FORWARD IS THE BEST

OTHERS

SO IN SUMMARY IF YOU WANT TO PROTECT YOU CAREER AS A PROJECT MANAGER

PAY ATTENTION TO THE STANDARD PLANNING ARTIFACTS AND MASTER THEIR APPLICATION

BUT PAY MORE ATTENTION TO (AND GET BETTER AT)

SO IN SUMMARY IF YOU WANT TO PROTECT YOU CAREER AS A PROJECT MANAGER

PAY ATTENTION TO THE STANDARD PLANNING ARTIFACTS AND MASTER THEIR APPLICATION

BUT PAY MORE ATTENTION TO (AND GET BETTER AT)

STRATEGIC THINKINGDECISION MAKINGINFLUENCINGNEGOTIATIONEMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE

MY CURRENT AVOCATION IS TEACHING PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND FACILITATING DISCUSSIONS ABOUT ITS APPLICATION. I’D BE INTERESTED IN YOUR IDEAS FOR PROTECTING AND ADVANCING PROJECT MANAGEMENT CAREERS. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON LINKEDIN OR AT THE EMAIL BELOW

Dr John Hoganjhogan1278@gmail.com

BY THE WAY, THAT BRIDGE OVER MY SHOULDER

BY THE WAY, THAT BRIDGE OVER MY SHOULDER

PLANNED BY JOHN ROEBLING AND HIS SON WASHINGTON ROEBLING TO TAKE 5 YEARS TO DESIGN AND BUILD

BY THE WAY, THAT BRIDGE OVER MY SHOULDER

PLANNED BY JOHN ROEBLING AND HIS SON WASHINGTON ROEBLING TO TAKE 5 YEARS TO DESIGN AND BUILD JOHN DIED WHILE SURVEYING THE SITE

WASHINGTON WAS INCAPACITATED BY DECOMPRESSION SICKNESS JUST AS CONSTRUCTION STARTED

BY THE WAY, THAT BRIDGE OVER MY SHOULDER

PLANNED BY JOHN ROEBLING AND HIS SON WASHINGTON ROEBLING TO TAKE 5 YEARS TO DESIGN AND BUILD JOHN DIED WHILE SURVEYING THE SITE

WASHINGTON WAS INCAPACITATED BY DECOMPRESSION SICKNESS JUST AS CONSTRUCTION STARTED

THE PROJECT WAS EXECUTED OVER THE NEXT 14 YEARS BY EMILY WARREN ROEBLING- THE WIFE OF WASHINGTON

EMILY WARREN ROEBLING IS MY MODEL FOR LASTING PROJECT EXECUTION