Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2016

GDPQ4 2016

Gross domestic product, 4th quarter 2016Embargoed until: 7 March 2017, 11:30am

@StatsSA#GDP

GDPQ4 2016

GDPQ4 2016

GDP (production)

GDPQ4 2016

GDPQ4 2016

Headline figure:GDP (production)

GDPQ4 2016

Quarter-on-quarter

-0,3%in Q4 2016

Seasonally adjusted and annualised

Year-on-year

0,7%in Q4 2016

Unadjusted

GDP increased by

0,3%in 2016

(compared with 2015)Constant 2010 prices

GDPQ4 2016

Mining and manufacturing were the two major industries that contributed negatively to growth in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

GDP growth rates

GDPQ4 2016

The primary sector experienced a contraction in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

-9,0%

-1,8%1,6%

Growth rates in various sectors

GDPQ4 2016

0,2

0,0

0,3

0,3

0,1

0,1

0,0

0,0

-0,4

-0,9

GDP-0,3%

LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions

Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

GDPQ4 2016

Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q4 2016

Lower production was recorded for coal, gold and ‘other’ metal ores such as platinum and iron ore

Agriculture

0,1%9,0% 11,5%

PRIMARY SECTOR

Mining

GDPQ4 2016

Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q4 2016

The fall in manufacturing was a result of decreases in the production of food and beverages,petroleum and chemicals, and transport equipment

Electricity

2,4%0,4%Construction1,8%

SECONDARY SECTOR

Manufacturing

3,1%

GDPQ4 2016

Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q4 2016

Increased activity was reported for financial intermediation, auxiliary activities and real estate services

Trade

2,1%Transport

2,6%1,6%

TERTIARY SECTOR

Finance

1,6%Government

0,9%

Personal services

1,0%

GDPQ4 2016

Nominal GDP values for Q4 2016

GDPQ4 2016

Nominal GDP estimated at R1 117 billion for Q4 2016, R23 billion more than Q3: 2016

Trade expanded by R19 billion to R164 billion

Transport & communication expanded by R5 billion to R105 billion

Mining expanded by R5 billion to R84 billion

Electricity decreased by R7 billion to R30 billion

Agriculture decreased by R11 billion to R13 billion

GDPQ4 2016

Shares of nominal GDP

Q4 2016

GDPQ4 2016

GDPp: revised and annual figures

GDPQ4 2016

GDPp annual revisions

Constant 2010 prices Level of GDPp revised slightly upwards

GDPQ4 2016

GDPp increased by

0,3%in 2016

(compared with 2015)Constant 2010 prices

GDPQ4 2016

Annual GDP growth rates

Constant 2010 prices The declining trend continues in 2016

GDPQ4 2016

GDP0,3%

Industry growth in

2016

0,4

0,2

0,2

0,1

0,0

0,1

0,0

-0,1

-0,4

-0,2

LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions

GDPQ4 2016

GDPQ3 2016

Expenditure on GDP

GDPQ4 2016

GDPQ4 2016

Expenditure on GDP decreased by

0,1%in Q4 2016

(quarter-on-quarter)Seasonally adjusted and annualised

Expenditure on GDP increased by

0,5%in 2016

(compared with 2015)Constant 2010 prices

GDPQ4 2016

Changes in inventories contributed negatively to growth in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

ExpenditureonGDPgrowthrates

GDPQ4 2016

3,4

-1,8

1,3

0,3

0,1

LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions

Change in inventories: -R16 402 million (contribution of -3,5 percentage points)Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualised

Expenditure on GDP: -0,1%

GDPQ4 2016

Household final consumption

expenditure (HFCE)

GDPQ4 2016

Household final consumption expenditure increased by

2,2%in Q4 2016

(quarter-on-quarter)Seasonally adjusted and annualised

GDPQ4 2016

Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

HFCE growth rates

Increased spending was reported for miscellaneous goods, food and beverages, and clothing and footwear items

GDPQ4 2016

0,6

0,7

0,4

0,2

0,2

0,5

0,0

0,0

-0,6

0,2

0,0

0,0

LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions

2,2%

HFCE by purpose

Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

GDPQ4 2016

0,6

1,4

0,0

LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions

2,2%

HFCE by durability

Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

0,1

GDPQ4 2016

Government final consumption

expenditure (GFCE)

GDPQ4 2016

Government final consumption expenditure increased by

0,3%in Q4 2016

(quarter-on-quarter)Seasonally adjusted and annualised

GDPQ4 2016

An increase in employment numbers contributed to growth in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

GFCE growth rates

GDPQ4 2016

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)

GDPQ4 2016

Gross fixed capital formation increased by

1,7%in Q4 2016

(quarter-on-quarter)Seasonally adjusted and annualised

GDPQ4 2016

Construction works and transport equipment were the largest positive contributors in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

GFCF growth rates

GDPQ4 2016

0,2

0,7

0,5

1,2

-0,1

-0,3

-0,6

LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions

1,7%

GFCF by asset type

Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

GDPQ4 2016

Change in inventories

GDPQ4 2016

Change in inventories(R million)

Large drawdowns were reported for the mining industry. These were partially offset by a build-up in the manufacturing industry.Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

GDPQ4 2016

Exports and Imports

GDPQ4 2016

Exports of goods and services

12,5%in Q4 2016

(quarter-on-quarter)

Imports of goods and services

6,1%in Q4 2016

(quarter-on-quarter)Seasonally adjusted and annualised Seasonally adjusted and annualised

GDPQ4 2016

Exports of precious metals and mineral products were largely responsible for the increase in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

Exports growth rates

GDPQ4 2016

Imports of machinery and equipment were largely responsible for the increase in Q4 2016 Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

Imports growth rates

GDPQ4 2016

GDPe: revised and annual figures

GDPQ4 2016

GDPe annual revisions

Constant 2010 prices Level of GDPe revised slightly downwards

GDPQ4 2016

Expenditure on GDP increased by

0,5%in 2016

(compared with 2015)Constant 2010 prices

GDPQ4 2016

Annual GDPe growth rates

Constant 2010 prices The declining trend continues in 2016

GDPQ4 2016

Regional estimates

GDPQ4 2016

GDPQ4 2016

LP1,9%

MP-0,2%

KZN0,8%

EC0,7%

FS-0,2%

NW4,9%

NC0,9%

WC1,5%

GP1,4%

South Africa1,3%

Which provincial economies grew in 2015?

Annual change: constant prices

GDPQ4 2016

Provincial contribution to the national

economy- 2015 -

GDPQ4 2016

Percentage distribution of economic activity within each province (2015)

Current prices

25%

23%

20%

17%

18%

33%

25%

23% 27%

GDPQ4 2016

Percentage distribution of industrial activity across provinces (2015)

Gauteng has the largest share of eight of the ten industries in South Africa. South African agriculture production is concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal and Western CapeCurrent prices

26%

28%

39%

30%

33%

31%

35%

42%

30%

40%

GDPQ4 2016

Recap

GDPQ4 2016

Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised

GDP and expenditure on GDP growth rates

GDPQ4 2016

Quarter-on-quarter

-0,3%in Q4 2016

Seasonally adjusted and annualised

Year-on-year

0,7%in Q4 2016

Unadjusted

GDP increased by

0,3%in 2016

(compared with 2015)Constant 2010 prices