E-Commerce and the Real Retail Facts Gerard Zandbergen

Retail is the fine art of separating consumers from their money

We often overestimate how quickly change will happen

We often underestimate the magnitude

of the changes when it does happen

(Gerd Leonhard, Media Futurist, 2009)

“E-Trade Conference 2013”

The Retail Facts Belgium 2013 and the effect of E-commerce on shops in 20 minutes

Gerard Zandbergen @1gerard

Locatus visits 400.000 shops every year

Amsterdam Brussels Barcelona

Overview Belgium: Shops everywhere

212.000 Retail outlets

België: overal lege winkels..

And: vacant units everywhere

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

16,0%

18,0%

20,0%

A1 A2 B1 B2 C

Vacancy Belgium per segment 2013

The 4 big (external) drivers effecting retail

Crisis

Demography

Urbanisation

Technology

Retail drivers:

Bigger

Out-of-Town

Retail Chains

Footfall

Sectors effected: Hearing aids

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sectors effected: Video stores

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Current Direct E-commerce Retail Effects

VERY LIMITED IN BELGIUM Not really there yet..

Video shops -47%

Internet/calling shops -41%

Radio/TV shops -37%

Betting shops -32%

Photo/film shops -30%

Postoffices -28%

DIY small shops -27%

Expected Direct E-commerce Retail Effects

Where to be expected? • Food? • Crafts?

And by When?

We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes when it does happen

Expected Direct E-commerce Retail Effects, next 5 years

Not at all (hairdressers): 68% Slightly (supermarkets): 20% Large (clothing): 9% Massive (electronics) 3%

We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes when it does happen

Gerard Zandbergen CEO Locatus International Research Direct: +31348490270 Mobile: +31621553096 Locatus International Research Pelmolenlaan 10 Postbus 139 3440AC Woerden gerard.zandbergen@locatus.nl www.locatus.com BLOG www.retailreflect.com TWITTER @1gerard