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Joel Cowen, Health Systems Research, offers a review of demographic, social and economic trends in the Rockford area focused on the growth of the "underclass" with discussion of the meaning for retailing, advertising and marketing.
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October 16, 2009
Presented toNorthern Illinois
American Advertising Federation
Presented byHealth Systems Research
1601 Parkview AvenueRockford, Illinois 61107
815/395-5639
An overview of demographic and social trends in the Rockford area.
Population growthDiversity – trends in racial and ethnic compositionThe economy, income, education and the developing underclassThe changing family environmentThe meaning for advertising and marketing.
2000 Census (2010 Coming!) 2005 – 2007 American Community
Survey 2005 American Community Survey Economic indicators Education indicators Social indicators
From 2000-2008, Winnebago County’s population growth was similar to the nation, greater than the state, but less than nearby “growth communities.”
Area GrowthUnited States 8.0%Illinois 3.9%City of Rockford 4.6%Winnebago County 7.8%Winn. County outside Rockford
11.4%Rockford Park District 6.3%Belvidere 27.1%Loves Park 21.6%Machesney Park 9.9%_______________
Source: Census Bureau estimates.
Rockford lost its position as Illinois’ second largest city to Aurora in 2002 and several other communities are moving up on us very rapidly.
City 2008 2000
Change2000-2008
Rockford
(3) 157,272
(2) 150,115 +4.6%
Aurora (2) 171,782
(3) 142,990 +20.1%
Joliet (4) 146,125
(5) 106,221 +11.5%
Naperville
(5) 143,117
(4) 128,358 +37.6%
Elgin (8) 106,330
(8) 94,487 +12.5%
Others: Springfield (6) 117,352, Peoria (7) 114,114
WINNEBAGO COUNTY HOME SALESYear Q. 1 Q. 2 Q. 3 Q. 4
2009 658 769
2008 837 1,367 1,167 844
2007 1,415 1,933 1,732 1,251
2006 1,385 2,001 2,038 1,616
Source: Illinois Association of Realtors
Average home price declined from $134,244 (Q1-2007) to $123,145 (Q2-2009), or 8.3%. However, the decline was less than Illinois (-20.5%) and the Chicago Area (-21.3%).
Rockford has increasingly annexed land, occupied much of that land and become less dense over the past 35 years.
The Green Communities Survey (2003-2004) revealed significant displeasure among local residents with sprawl and current development.
Commuting to the Chicago area doubled from 1990 (1.7%) to 2000 (3.7%), but still represents a very small part of employment for Winnebago County residents.
87% of Winnebago County workers are employed in Winnebago County, but only 35.8% of Boone County workers are employed in Boone County.
Commuting time for the average worker rose from 17.8 minutes in 1990 to 20.8 minutes in 2000, reaching 21.7 in 2008.
County
In-Migration From
Out-Migration ToNet
Migration
Number
Percent Number Percent2006-2007
Cook 1,502 12.3% 744 7.6% +758Boone 1,234 10.1% 944 9.6% +290Rock, WI 591 4.8% 625 6.4% -34McHenry 531 4.3% 195 2.0% +336Ogle 525 4.3% 565 5.8% -40Kane 522 4.3% 245 2.5% +277Stephenson
435 3.6% 294 3.0% +141
DuPage 391 3.2% 166 1.7% +225Other 6,480 53.1% 6,008 61.4% +472Total 12,211 100.0% 9,786 100.0% +2,425
AverageIncome
$43,000 $45,000
Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income for 2006-2007
Winnebago County’s 72.5% home ownership level in 2005 - 2007 was improved over 68% in 1990; higher than the nation at 67.2%.
Black (40.2%) home ownership lags. Hispanic (60.8%), white (77.8%) and Asian (71.2%) are much higher. Hispanic has been rising. (2007 data)
AgeGroup 1980 1990 2000
2005-2007 2020
Under 5 7.4% 7.6% 7.1% 6.9% 7.1%
5-1722.2% 18.6% 19.3% 18.5%
18.2%
18-24 12.3% 9.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.2%
25-4428.2% 32.3% 29.8% 28.3%
25.9%
45-6419.7% 19.3% 22.6% 24.9%
23.8%
65+10.2% 12.7% 12.7% 12.8%
16.8%
Median Age 29.6 33.4 35.9 36.4 38.1
Over the past five decades, the Rockford area has become increasingly diverse in terms of race and ethnicity.
In 1950, just 2.6% of Winnebago County residents classified themselves as nonwhite. By 2005-2007, one-quarter (24.4%) were nonwhite.
The diversity increase from 1950 - 2007 has been significant for several groups.
1950 – 2005/07 GROWTH
Race/Ethnic
Numerical
Change
Black +29,305
Hispanic +27,993
Asian +5,122
Race/Ethnic
2005 – 2007 20002000-2005/7
Change
No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.
White 222,429
75.6% 220,817
79.3% 1,612 +0.6%
Black 33,187
11.3% 29,038
10.4% 4,149 +14.3%
Hispanic 28,440
9.7% 19,206
6.9% 9,234 +48.1%
American Indian 615 0.2% 584 0.2% 31 +5.3%
Asian/Pacific Isl.5,862 2.0% 4,795 1.7% 1,067
+22.3%
Multiple Races/Other
3,638 1.2% 3,978 1.4% -340 -0.2%
Total 294,171
100.0%
278,418
100.0%
15,753
+5.4%
Except for Hispanic, all races are non-HispanicSource: U.S. Census Bureau
From 2000-2005/07, Winnebago County grew by 15,753 from 278,418 to 294,171.
Net growth was primarily composed of additional minority persons.
Numeric Pct. of Race/Ethnic Group Change GrowthWhite +1,612 +10.2%Hispanic +9,234 +58.8%Black, non Hispanic +4,149 +26.4%Asian +1,067 +6.8%
From 2000-2005/07, growth was 80% minority.
Race/Ethnic
Winnebago CountyOutside Rockford
City ofRockford
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
White, non Hispanic
132,528
87.0% 91,515
62.5%
Black, non Hispanic
5,146 3.4% 29,187
19.9%
Hispanic 9,605 6.3% 20,528
14.0%
Asian 3,800 2.5% 2,083 1.4%Multi-Racial 1,132 0.7% 2,360 1.6%Other 177 0.1% 698 0.5%Total 152,38
8100.0
%146,3
71100.0
%
The City of Rockford and remainder of the County differ appreciably in their racial/ethnic makeup.
Race/Ethnic
City of Rockfo
rd
County exc.
Rockford
Percent in
Rockford
Black 28,537 5,102 84.8%Asian 4,489 2,269 66.4%Hispanic 22,937 8,100 73.9%
Population
154,128
146,124 51.3%
Rockford may have the seventh largest Hispanic population among Illinois cities.
Community
HispanicPopulation
1. Chicago 770,386 2. Cicero 75,8221 3. Aurora 63,091 4. Waukegan 49,3635. Elgin 44,4706. Joliet 38,8877. Rockford7. Rockford 22,97322,9738. Berwyn 20,5432
9. Bolingbrook 17,56210. Melrose Park 12,4852
12007 data.22000 data, 2008 not available.
Asians living in the Rockford area come from a variety of backgrounds.
Ancestry
Number
Percent
Laotian 1,176 24.9%Asian Indian
746 15.6%
Vietnamese
646 13.5%
Filipino 637 13.3%Chinese 451 9.4%Korean 443 9.3%Japanese 179 3.7%Other 496 10.4%Total 4,780 100.0
%
In 2007, only 43% of Rockford youth were white non-Hispanic, the majority were non-white. The older population 65+ is mostly white, non-Hispanic about 86% in 2008.
In fall 2008, only 38% of studentsin Rockford District 205 schools were white, 31% black, 22% Hispanic and 3% Asian.
Year(Sep
t. 30)
TotalEnroll-ment White
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Amer.
Indian
Multi-
Racial1
200826,95
0
10,22737.9%
8,255
30.6%
6,04022.4%
8623.2
%
340.1%
1,5325.7%
200026,04
7
13,34051.2%
8,184
31.4%
3,67814.1%
8003.1
%
450.2%
NotAvaila
ble1990
26,554
18,53469.8%
5,975
22.5%
1,2754.8%
7432.8
%
270.1%
198032,40
7
24,61375.9%
6,384
19.7%
8662.7%
3671.1
%
1770.5%
1Multiracial added as a category beginning 2004.Source: Rockford School District Fall Housing Report
Rank
1870 1910 1950 1990 2000
1. Sweden Sweden Sweden Mexico Mexico
2. Ireland Germany
Italy Italy Laos
3. England Italy Germany
England
Bosnia
4. Scotland
Russia Lithuania
Germany
Poland
5. Germany
England England Laos Italy
Rank
County 2007
2006
2005
2004 2003
Total
1. Mexico 170 262 267 344 136 1,179
2. Bosnia/Herzegovina
6 22 93 61 26 210
3. Philippines 41 40 33 19 24 1574. Vietnam 32 27 28 18 14 1195. India 15 12 28 21 35 1116. China 21 18 28 17 16 1007. Serbia/
Montenegro1
13 13 22 9 13 70
8. Poland 8 13 15 16 8 609. Laos 10 9 10 9 17 55
10. Korea 0 11 13 16 13 531Includes Macedonia
An emerging ethnic group in the Rockford area comes from the former Yugoslavia.
Using an ICE (INS) methodology, the number of undocumented residents is estimated to be:
County Number
Boone 3,237
Ogle 1,504
Winnebago 9,705
3-County Area
14,446
Minority populations will continue to grow and constitute a larger proportion of the population.
“Hispanic Wave” continuing, though immigration may be slowing. Hispanic community established
Minority birth rates are much higher than white, non-Hispanic.
Young minority populations, median ages – white (40.8), Asian (32.0), black (27.3), Hispanic (25.7).
At the current growth rate, the county will have nearly 55,000 Hispanics by 2020 or one-sixth of the projected county population.
YearHispanicPopulatio
n1990 7,7712000 19,2062006 28,4402010 (est.)
37,752
2020 (est.)
54,470Source: 1990-2006 Census Bureau2010-2020 Health Systems Research
Household size declined from 1960-2000 due to lower fertility, declining marriage, more persons living alone, but increased after 2000 with the Hispanic influx.
WINNEBAGO COUNTYAVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE: 1960 -
2005 - 2007Year Household Size2008 2.632000 2.531990 2.571980 2.761970 3.171960 3.31
Source: Decennial Census, American Community Survey
Category2005-
07 2000 1990 1980
Total Households 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Married couples with children
20.9% 23.0% 27.0% 33.0%
Married couples w/o children
30.3% 29.3% 29.9% 30.8%
Female single parents 8.3% 7.6% 6.8% 5.7%
Male single parent 2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 1.0%
Elderly living alone 10.0% 9.6% 9.5% 8.0%
Others living alone 18.0% 16.7% 15.0% 13.4%
Others/group quarters 10.2% 11.4% 10.1% 8.1%
Family Type
Winnebago
CountyRockford
City
In family households
73,795 37,695
Married couple 64.6% 52.3%
Male single parent
7.2% 8.5%
Female single parent
27.7% 38.7%
Non-family household
0.1% 0.1%
Grandchildren 5.4% 5.7%
Race/Ethnic
MarriedCouple
SingleFemale
Grand-Parent
White 73.2% 14.0% 4.0%
Black 26.5% 49.5% 12.2%
Hispanic
60.7% 16.8% 5.8%
Asian 80.7% 6.8% 4.3%1Updated information not available
Unemployment fell to 5-6% in recent years, but has risen to August 2009 - Rockford 16.9%, Winnebago County 15.2%.
The MSA has lost about 15,000 manufacturing jobs in the past decade and remains prone to severe cyclical swings, especially as housing and auto demand varies. Manufacturing fell from 33,000 to 30,300 in the past year.
Second highest manufacturing proportion (25%) among larger counties in the nation (2004 ACS).
New jobs being created are primarily in the services sector, but service jobs with lower wages and often without benefits are replacing manufacturing jobs.
Rockford industries have increasingly lost local control.
Few corporate headquarters; no large firms have headquarters here.
Rockford area needs to add professionals to “balance the community,” maintain tax base.
“Largest employer” list is dominated by service industries such as education, health and government. These are sectors where we “tax ourselves.” They do not, in general, bring in dollars to build the economy.
Many major basic industries have had a pattern of declining jobs over the past decade.
Rank Employer Employ
ees Type
1. Rockford Public Schools 3,730 Service
2. Rockford Health System 2,972 Service
3. Wal-Mart 2,750 Service
4. SwedishAmerican Health System 2,373 Servi
ce
5. Hamilton Sundstrand 2,165 Basic
6. Winnebago County 1,839 Service
7. OSF St. Anthony Medical Center 1,807 Servi
ce
8. Rockford Park District 1,739 Service
9. Daimler-Chrysler 1,600 Basic
9. United Parcel Service 1,600 BasicSource: Rockford Area Economic Development Council
Though educational attainment for high school grads among persons 25+ is relatively typical, we lag in college graduates.
Rockford must compete against communities like Naperville where 64% have a Bachelor’s Degree.
Only 72% currently graduate from Rockford high schools. (70% black, 65% Hispanic) – 2008 Report Card.
Race/EthnicGend
er
Entered 9th Fall 2003
Graduated
June 2007
PercentGradua
tedWhite, non-Hispanic
Male 628 353 56.2%Female
570 374 65.6%
Black, non-Hispanic
Male 497 157 31.6%Female
508 246 48.4%
Asian/Pacific Islander
Male 44 27 61.4%Female
34 25 73.5%
HispanicMale 214 94 43.9%Female
220 106 48.2%
Total 2,718 1,386 51.0%Source: Fall Housing Report 2003
ISBE Graduates 2007
PERCENT MEETING OR EXCEEDING STANDARDS
High School
2008 2007 2006 2005
Auburn 38.9% 38.1% 50.9% 51.4%
East 23.7% 23.9% 30.5% 22.7%
Guilford 38.3% 46.1% 46.6% 52.1%
Jefferson 28.2% 29.6% 34.9% 41.3%
District 33.6% 36.4% 41.8% 42.9%
State 52.5% 52.6% 54.3% 54.9%
Source: ISBE, Prairie State Achievement Examination
The Rockford Area continues to trail the state and nation in residents with a Bachelor’s Degree.
Year
City ofRockfo
rd
Winn.Count
y Illinois U.S.
2005 - 2007 (ACS)
18.8% 19.9% 29.0% 27.0%
2000 (Census)19.8% 19.4% 26.1% 24.4%
Persons 25 - 34
2000 Census
21.0%
2005 - 07 ACS
20.2%
Educational Attainment
UnitedStates
Winnebago
Differ-ence
Less than 9th grade 6.5% 5.4% -1.1%9th to 12th grade, no diploma
9.5% 11.0% +1.5%
HS Grad (includes GED) 30.0% 35.0% +5.0%
Some college, no degree
19.6% 20.8% +1.2%
Associate’s degree 7.4% 7.9% +0.5%
Bachelor’s degree 17.1% 13.3% -3.8%Grad or professional degree
9.9% 6.7% -3.2%
Percent HS graduate or higher
84.0% 83.6% -0.4%
Percent bach. degree or higher
27.0% 19.9% -7.1%
Source: American Community Survey
GENXers (ages 25-39 with college degree) comprise 1.2% of our population compared to 2.2% for the nation.
Rockford metropolitan area per capita personal income (PCPI) as a percent of the U.S. PCPI has been on a continuous downward slide for the past decade.
PCPI includes all wealth, not just earnings - but also dividends, interest, government programs.
YearPercent
ofU.S. PCPI
2007 81%2000 91%1997 97%1994 101%
Only two Illinois metropolitan areas had a lower per capita personal income than Rockford for 2007.
MetropolitanArea
Per Capita Personal Income
Chicago $44,346Peoria $38,189Decatur $36,433Quad Cities $36,208Springfield $36,150Bloomington-Normal
$35,371
Rockford $31,232Kankakee $29,196Danville $27,141
Population GroupPoverty Percent2005-07 2000
All Persons 13.6% 9.6% Under 18 20.8% 12.9%
Under 6 25.1%Seniors 65+ 7.1%
White, non-Hispanic 8.4%Black 39.6%Hispanic 25.2%Not High School Graduate 25.0%Families No child 3.1% 1 – 2 children 13.4% 3 – 4 children 28.4% 5+ children 41.7%Single parent families 44.3%
DEFINITION: Pupils age 3 to 17, inclusive, from families receiving Public Aid, living in institutions for neglected or delinquent children, being supported in foster homes with public funds, or eligible to receive free or reduced-price lunches. Free lunch is available if household income is below 130% of poverty, reduced price lunch under 185%.
GroupPercent
Low Income
District 205 71.5%
State 41.1%
High Schools 61.8%
Elementary 72.7%
PERSONAL INCOME SOURCES: 1995 - 2007
Source 2007 1995
Earnings 66.6% 69.8%
Dividends, interest, rent
16.2% 17.4%
Transfer (gov) receipts
17.2% 12.7%
Total 100.0% 100.0%
Occupation
WinnebagoCounty United States
2005/2007 2000
Change
2005/2007 2000
Change
Management, professional
27.8% 29.7% -1.9% 34.1% 33.6% +0.5%
Service17.1
% 12.9% +4.2% 16.6% 14.9% +1.7%
Sales & office25.8
% 26.7% -0.9% 25.8% 26.7% -0.9%
Farming 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% 0.7% 0.7% ---
Construction 7.5% 8.6% -1.1% 9.8% 9.4% +0.4%
Production, transportation
21.7% 22.0% -0.3% 12.9% 14.6% -1.7%
Nearly one in five persons are enrolled in Medicaid and related programs.
About 45,000 Winnebago County residents receive food stamps.
Poverty rose from 9.6% in 1999 to 13.6% in 2005 - 2007.
Some elected officials and community Some elected officials and community leaders have contended that expansion of leaders have contended that expansion of our social problems is being driven by our social problems is being driven by “people from Chicago” coming to Rockford “people from Chicago” coming to Rockford because the social services system is so because the social services system is so good. Is this true?good. Is this true?
Little evidence, mostly anecdotes about “people from Chicago.”
Of course people are coming from Chicago. Cook County has 5.3 million, so certainly many come this way and Rockfordians move to Chicago. In other times, we would be proud that individuals are moving here.
Movers tend to be low income, unemployed renters, those in poverty move more often.
Virtually all Illinois communities blame “Chicago” for social ills, supposedly because of their excellent social services. However, services are similar in all larger communities.
Why would low income persons choose the community with the highest unemployment?
These problems are our own – low educational attainment, crime and a declining economy.
Believing that social problems are generated by “Chicagoans” is counter productive, keeping us from improving locally and seeking solutions.
Blaming social services comes at a time of increasing needs and reduced support. A strong set of services is essential.
46.3% of births are to unmarried mothers, continues to rise.
9.2% of births are low birth weight, 15.4% of black births.
Over half of births are paid for by Medicaid.
Population slowdown, but continued higher minority proportions.
Declining income, property values, tax base.
Growing underclass, high social service needs.
Lower income shoppers are the fastest growing income group in the Rockford area and nation.
In total, growth is outpacing higher income households.
Compared with other groups, budget-constrained shoppers:
Shop more frequently, but spend less per trip
Switch retailers and brands more often
However, lower-income households are not homogenous, but quite diverse. Young adults, single parents, elderly,
Hispanics, Blacks
Rockford is in a severe downward slide.
Underclass continues to grow, no “transformation” in the short term.
Selling to or servicing the population may require a shift in thinking toward the reality of our populace.
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