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Urban Futures for Architects - presented to Introduction to Architecture class at University of Kansas School of Architecture 22 Sep 2011. Topics covered:1 How Do You Think About the Future? an overview of futures thinking, the change process2 Big Urban Futures. demography, limited resources affecting 21st c cities3 Architecture, Language and You. Places you can see the future today
Citation preview
A presentation by
Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse Frewen Architects and University of Houston Futures Studies For University of Kansas Introduction to Architecture 02011
urban futures
language
space
timehttp://twitter.com/urbanverse http://urbanverse.posterous.com
Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA
@urbanverse
3
public projects
housing & schools
master planning
language futures
architecture cities
my path
wearables
movables
buildingscities
language
wearables
movables
buildingscities
Urban Futures Perspective
I. Thinking About the Future?
II. Big Urban Futures
III.Architecture, Language + You
I. How do you ….
Think about the future?
The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
Alan Kay (modeled Macintosh & Windows)
Continuous Discontinuous
Given Trends
Urbanization Aging
Events Sept 11
Hurr Katrina
Chosen Incremental
Education Integration
Transformation New leadership Internet/www
4 Types of Change
The Real Problem of Change
S-Curve
S-Curve
Peter Bishop, 2003
Herbert Spencer – Technology & Progress
Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997
Industrial Society
Future Society,altruistic
Militant Society
Barbarism
Oswald Spengler – Growth and Decline
Birth
Pre-culture
Late Culture
Mass civilization
Death
Time
IDEA
Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997
Birth
Pre-Culture
Late culture
Mass culture
Death
IDEA
TIME
Riane Eisler – Domination/Partnership
Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997
Every day futures…
How to apply futures thinking
Applied Futures WorkForecasting
• Describing the future
• With systems, cycles, trends, scenarios
Planning• Visions = Preferred
Futures
• Influencing, strategies
3 Types of Futures ThinkingFutures Forces Thinking TechniquesProbable Constants Definite Historical Trends
Extrapolation
Plausible Discontinuities Imaginative ScenariosSurprises
Preferable Choices Visionary VisioningImages Planning
From Peter Bishop, 2003
Futures MethodsScanning Research, STEEP Forecasting Systems, Trends, Scenarios Visioning Preferred Vision, GoalsPlanning Mission, StrategyActing Initiatives, Results
Immediate Environment
STEEP Environmental Scan
STEEP Environmental Scan
Social Political
EnvironmentalTechnologicalEconomic
You
CausesCauses
Metaphors, Myths, ImagesMetaphors, Myths, Images
Problem Problem
Discourse Analysis
WorldviewWorldview
Litany, Descriptions
Systems Analysis
Causal Layered Analysis
Continuous
Years
Generations
Decades
Time Scale of Change
Inayatullah, 2004
II. Big Urban Futures
What do you think might happen?
Cities and people
3 Billion More People
Population Forecasts for Selected Countries 2010 - 2100
You
Nigeria
U.S.
India
China
US Population to 2050
320m
410m
550m
You
Population Over Age 60 2005 - 2045
You
You @60
Megacities 1959 – 2000 - 2015
You
Urbanization 1950 – 2007 - 2030 You
Urban – Rural 1950 - 2030
You
Planet resources
Limits to growth
World Oil Production 2002- 2012
You
Areas with High Water Stress
You
Areas with Degraded and Very Degraded Soil
Africa’s High Risk Areas for Climate Change
What happens? Prices are going up…
Food
EnergyWater
What kind of cities??
Choices or business as usual?
How much land do we need to live like…..
ParisParis
London
S.F.
N.Y.
Singapore Houston
US home size doubled in 50 years
2000: 2,200sf1970: 1,500sf1950: 1,000sf
III. Architecture, Language + You
What kinds of cities will you make?
Ways to think about urban futures … 1.Language2.Social3.Co-creating4.Steady state 5.diplomacy
1. Architecture and language
The city as language
44
Utopia
Gaia
High Tech
Mythic Cities
Fortress
45
metaphoric cities
gardenmachinebirdfamily
Omega Center for Sustainable Living
Rhinebeck NYBNIM Architects
Living Cities
Seed CathedralShanghai World Expo
UK PavilionThomas Heatherwick, architect
Beauty with meaning
Oakland CA Existing Street
People first
Oakland CA w/ infill, trees, transit, bike lanes
From Dead Zones To Lovable
2. The Social City
IRL, virtual, and you
A
The Conversation Prism Brian Solis + JESS
Entry Points
Mobile Phone Users 2000 - 2010
From 1 billion to 5 billion users in a decade
Social networks; peer to peer
Representations of reality; maps
Second Life
Digita
l Add
ed to
Real W
orldNew
Fant
asy W
orlds
Metaverse Roadmap modified
Layar – on android cell phone
New York Phantom City Tour
Phantomcity.org
Heads Up display wearable lenses
Vernor Vinge Rainbows End
Heads Up Display
Times Square NYC Networked Omniscient Exhibit
You’ll know the social city far differently.
3. Co-Creating the City
Hacking the City
The Underbelly Project
Abandoned Subway
New York City
Guerrilla art underground
Women, Morro de Providencia
Rio de Janeiro, JR Artist
Guerilla arthillside
Guerilla gardening
D
Germany electrical box bench
DIY Cities
Sydney Opera HouseJorn Utzon Architect
Making cities, not just looking
4. Steady State Cities
How do we measure progress?
Baltimore,
CitiStats
Data-driven choices
Most Livable Vienna, Austria - Mercer
Greenest Cities
Portland Oregon
Well-being
Mapping Walk Scores . . . . Seattle
Walkability
Affecting Where We LiveZillow
5. Urban Diplomacy
Coming together
Resolving wicked problemsLos Angeles …..17 million people, 200 municipalities, 5 counties, 5 watersheds share geography, water, air, nature, transportation, public resources, economy, culture and identity.
Who Owns the Water?
Who Owns the Skyline?
Who Owns the Sidewalk?
Who Decides Transportation Options?
Copenhagen Bike Highway Sharing the city, not just consuming.
How do we live together, diversity in harmony?
Urban Futures
What futures will you make?
What stories will your city tell future gens?
Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse Frewen Architects and University of Houston Futures Studies http://twitter.com/urbanverse http://urbanverse.posterous.com
Thank you!
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