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Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Natural Sciences, and Economics, Stirling Management School
a.m.winther@stir.ac.uk
Energy Justice in 2030 in Rural Communities in Scotland
Anne Winther
TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC
TRANSFORMATION: SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Transport modelling in rural communities
• One of two papers• Second is in tomorrow morning’s session
“Unequal mobility and its social consequences”
The next 15 minutes…. Sustainability and transformation
• Multiple methods• Three rural Scottish communities• Baseline sustainability
– Overarching sustainability– Transport ecological footprint
• Visions of transport• Modelling options for the future
– Step changes in mobility– Potential of electric and hybrid cars
• Implications for creating sustainable transport
Methods
Focus groups Vision modelling Evaluate and engage
• Assess baseline against sustainable community design (e.g.: ecological footprint, well-being, environmental attitudes, community profiles)
• Create a vision of a thriving community in a resource constrained 2030
• Model the visions’ ecological footprints and community structures
• Identify options, overarching issues and opportunities to engage
• Make recommendations
• Report findings
Qualitative & quantitative Participatory Integrating
methodologies Critical
Act
ion
Out
put
App
roac
h
Questionnaire and secondary data analysis
ENVISION SUSTAINABILITY
UNDERSTAND VISION SUSTAINABILITY
CREATE MEANING
MEASURE SUSTAINABILITY
Evolving and holistic
Aim
Three rural communities
Google Earth, 2013.
Multiple methods
Focus groups Vision modelling Evaluate and engage
• Assess baseline against sustainable community design (e.g.: ecological footprint, well-being, environmental attitudes, community profiles)
• Create a vision of a thriving community in a resource constrained 2030
• Model the visions’ ecological footprints and community structures
• Identify options, overarching issues and opportunities to engage
• Make recommendations
• Report findings
Qualitative & quantitative Participatory Integrating
methodologies Critical
Act
ion
Out
put
App
roac
h
Questionnaire and secondary data analysis
ENVISION SUSTAINABILITY
UNDERSTAND VISION SUSTAINABILITY
CREATE MEANING
MEASURE SUSTAINABILITY
Evolving and holistic
Aim
Baseline ecological footprint calculation
Community Household
Questionnaire
Community average data (per capita), e.g.:• Car and air travel distances (PKMS)
• Electricity, LPG and Coal consumption (kWh)
• Tobacco, newspaper, clothing expenditure (£)
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
REAP v2.17 (SEI, 2011)
REAP
v2.17 Stockholm
Environment Institute
Baseline sustainability: the fairshare and Baker’s ‘ideal model’
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Stirling Fintry (wt) Killin (wt) Highland Kinlochleven(wt)
Ecol
ogic
al F
ootp
rint (
gha/
cap)
LA or weighted case study
Capital investment
Public Services
Private Services
Consumables
Housing
Food
Transport
4.96
6.305.97
5.015.64
World biocapacity = 1.8 gha/cap
Modelled in REAP v2.17, SEI, 2011, Baker, 2006, GFN, 2012.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Directemissions
Vehiclepurchases
Running avehicle
Train Bus Air Ferry Total
EF(g
ha/c
ap)
FDC
Stirling LAFintryKillinHighland LAKinlochleven
Breakdown of baseline transport ecological footprint
Modelled in REAP v2.17, SEI, 2011, GFN, 2012.
World biocapacity = 1.8 gha/cap
46%96%71%46%62%
Percentage of biocapacity
Methods
Focus groups Vision modelling Evaluate and engage
• Assess baseline against sustainable community design (e.g.: ecological footprint, well-being, environmental attitudes, community profiles)
• Create a vision of a thriving community in a resource constrained 2030
• Model the visions’ ecological footprints and community structures
• Identify options, overarching issues and opportunities to engage
• Make recommendations
• Report findings
Qualitative & quantitative Participatory Integrating
methodologies Critical
Act
ion
Out
put
App
roac
h
Questionnaire and secondary data analysis
ENVISION SUSTAINABILITY
UNDERSTAND VISION SUSTAINABILITY
CREATE MEANING
MEASURE SUSTAINABILITY
Evolving and holistic
Aim
A rural community view of 2030
Community focus group scenario
How can your community thrive and flourish in 2030?
Climate change
legislation
Rising oil prices and
peak oil
Killin vision statement
Killin is much more SELF-SUFFICIENT with a COMMUNITY RENEWABLE ENERGY supply funding enterprise and supplying energy. COMMUNITY OWNED ASSETS, which are CONTROLLED AND RUN BY LOCAL PEOPLE, generate income.
Everyone makes much FEWER TRIPS. LOCAL TRIPS are by BIKE, WALKING and in some cases by HORSE. COMMUNITY TRANSPORT links Killin with other villages and the regular buses / trains to Glasgow and Stirling. No one makes single car journeys to shop anymore – trips like that are done on the community bus or co-ordinated with others. Large areas of land have been turned over to LOCAL FOOD PRODUCTION (local farmers or growing your own) and this food is consumed locally. All houses have high insulation and renewables. Housing matches the need for it. SMALL BUSINESSES are flourishing and there is YEAR-ROUND EMPLOYMENT. HEALTH SERVICES are delivered LOCALLY. The most important thing is to KEEP THE COMMUNITY SPIRIT GOING.
Methods
Focus groups Vision modelling Evaluate and engage
• Assess baseline against sustainable community design (e.g.: ecological footprint, well-being, environmental attitudes, community profiles)
• Create a vision of a thriving community in a resource constrained 2030
• Model the visions’ ecological footprints and community structures
• Identify options, overarching issues and opportunities to engage
• Make recommendations
• Report findings
Qualitative & quantitative Participatory Integrating
methodologies Critical
Act
ion
Out
put
App
roac
h
Questionnaire and secondary data analysis
ENVISION SUSTAINABILITY
UNDERSTAND VISION SUSTAINABILITY
CREATE MEANING
MEASURE SUSTAINABILITY
Evolving and holistic
Aim
Modelling approach
1. Investigation of different levels of mobility and technology change– Step 1 – Small scale– Step 2 – Step change– Step 3 – Transformative
(Handmer and Dovers, 1996)
2. Impact of technological change– Hybrid and electric vehicles– Renewable electricity generation
Modelling sustainability:reduction in EF for steps 1-3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Baseline Step 1 Step 2 Step 3
Perc
enta
ge o
f fai
rsha
re
Scenario
Fintry
Kinlochleven
Killin
Impact of the electric car on the car EF (Fintry)
Modelled in REAP v2.17, SEI, 2011 with assumptions from Alderson et al., 2012, DEFRA, 2012, Helmer and Marx, 2012, Nissan, 2012.
Can technological innovation achieve sustainability?
Community / LA
Transport EF (gha/cap) % of fairshare
Baseline ECCE ECPR ECCE ECPR
Fintry 1.73 1.27 0.99 70% 55%
Kinlochleven 1.11 0.76 0.55 42% 30%
Killin 1.28 0.94 0.74 52% 41%
Stirling 0.83 0.67 0.53 37% 30%
Highland 0.82 0.65 0.51 36% 29%
Modelled in REAP v2.17, SEI, 2011 with assumptions from Alderson et al., 2012, GFN, 2012, Helmer and Marx, 2012, Nissan, 2012. Photograph from Fintry Development Trust © FDT 2009.
ECPR + Step scenarios
Community / LA
% of fairshare
BaselineECPR + Step 1
ECPR + Step 2
ECPR + Step 3
Fintry 96% 40% 27% 15%
Kinlochleven 62% 23% 15% 8%
Killin 71% 31% 26% 11%
Modelled in REAP v2.17, SEI, 2011 with assumptions from Alderson et al., 2012, GFN, 2012, Helmer and Marx, 2012, Nissan, 2012.
Impact of EVs on household energy
Community
Percentage of household baseline electricity consumption for scenario
ECPR + baseline
ECPR + Step 1
ECPR + Step 2
ECPR + Step 3
Fintry 71% 57% 43% 0%
Kinlochleven 51% 42% 32% 0%
Killin 51% 41% 31% 0%
Modelled in REAP v2.17, SEI, 2011 with assumptions from Alderson et al., 2012, Helmer and Marx, 2012, Nissan, 2012.
Methods
Focus groups Vision modelling Evaluate and engage
• Assess baseline against sustainable community design (e.g.: ecological footprint, well-being, environmental attitudes, community profiles)
• Create a vision of a thriving community in a resource constrained 2030
• Model the visions’ ecological footprints and community structures
• Identify options, overarching issues and opportunities to engage
• Make recommendations
• Report findings
Qualitative & quantitative Participatory Integrating
methodologies Critical
Act
ion
Out
put
App
roac
h
Questionnaire and secondary data analysis
ENVISION SUSTAINABILITY
UNDERSTAND VISION SUSTAINABILITY
CREATE MEANING
MEASURE SUSTAINABILITY
Evolving and holistic
Aim
Implications for rural communities
Creating sustainable communities will mean:• Significant mobility changes will be necessary even with
technological innovation• Mobility changes will require transformation in lifestyles• New forms of community ownership, co-operation and
re-localisation will be required• Community capability, literacy, renewable energy assets
and property rights are key (energy justice)• Community-specific solutions• Community cars powered by renewable energy
TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
AcknowledgementsESRC, NERC, Gordon Cowtan, Martin Turner, Bill Acton, Fintry Development Trust, Frost-Free
Ltd, Jill Mills, Jane Durney, Ian and Lyndsey McConnell, Kinlochleven Community Trust, Kinlochleven High School,
Killin and Ardeonaig Development Trust, Willie and Gina Angus, Bernard Mallett-Griffiths, Mairi Wilkie, Killin Library,
Stockholm Environment Institute, Annie Moses, Chris West, Alexa Spence, Bill Jamieson and Scott Jackson.
Supervisors (past & present): Robert McCulloch, Ian Moffatt & Nick Hanley
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